11005 Graham Way

Paint Rock, TX 76866

$97,500C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax + insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $85/mo
• Annual: $1,015/yr
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $27,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,245 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Paint Rock ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,008 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Concho County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Concho County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.