11005 Graham Way · Paint Rock, TX 76866

$97,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1980 2.25 ac lot $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * OWNER FINANCING AVALABLE * * If you are in the market for a cute little home in the country this is it. This home is in a HOA community full of very friendly neighbors. If youre looking for a quiet place to get away then look no further. We just finished our remodel with new flooring throughout, a new kitchen, and a new bathroom. The water well is brand new and produces 105 gallons per min.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New bathroom
• Water well

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOM
• WATER WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,245 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Paint Rock ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,008 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Concho County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Concho County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,826 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $7,863
• Equity at exit: $34,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $32,799
• Equity at exit: $45,780

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76866

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $858 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $378/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $751

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $112	+0% $85	+5% $57	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $17	-5% $51	+0% $85	+5% $118	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $109	base $85	+0.5pp $59	+1.0pp $34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,500 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,500 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,500 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,500 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,500 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,500 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,500 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,500 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,500 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $97,500 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,500 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,500 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,500 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,500 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $97,500 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    * * OWNER FINANCING AVALABLE * * If you are in the market for a cute little home in the country this is it. This home is in a HOA community full of very friendly neighbors. If youre looking for a quiet place to get away then look no further. We just finished our remodel with new flooring throughout, a new kitchen, and a new bathroom. The water well is brand new and produces 105 gallons per min.

19. 2026-03-18
    listed $98,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    * * OWNER FINANCING AVALABLE * * If you are in the market for a cute little home in the country this is it. This home is in a HOA community full of very friendly neighbors. If youre looking for a quiet place to get away then look no further. We just finished our remodel with new flooring throughout, a new kitchen, and a new bathroom. The water well is brand new and produces 105 gallons per min.

20. 1996-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $378 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,406/yr (+$117/mo · 371.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$378
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable loss: −$632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$152
• After-tax cash flow: $1,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paint Rock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833980
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,480
• Composite: 28.53/100
• National rank: #12081
• State rank: #1008 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Paint Rock

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1245
• US rank: #21750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 918

Population outlook (Concho County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,538 people
• By 2030: 4,681 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 4,975 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 5,329 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 5,760 · +26.9%
• By 2100: 4,903 · +8.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 26% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Concho

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.1pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+69.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+51.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 104.2078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $97,500 SAAR TX
• 2026-03-18 Listed $98,000 SAAR TX
• 1996-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $378 · -13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.