1216 Little Flock Dr

Burleson, TX 76036

$307,999D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,461/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax + insurance: −$513
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-184/mo
• Annual: $-2,211/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $86,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caddo Grove El (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 595 students, 71% FRL); R C Loflin Middle (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 730 students, 55% FRL); Joshua H S (math 67% / reading 15%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,242 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Joshua ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1275 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.