1216 Little Flock Dr · Burleson, TX 76036

$307,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $165/sqft · 21% below area Est $391k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home boasts a convenient and low-maintenance layout. Three bedrooms are secluded near the front of the home, leading to a spacious and flexible open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining room and family room meet. Nestled into a private rear corner is the lavish owner's suite, featuring a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Private rear corner
• Full bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE REAR CORNER
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caddo Grove El (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 595 students, 71% FRL); R C Loflin Middle (math 41% / reading 45%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 730 students, 55% FRL); Joshua H S (math 67% / reading 15%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,242 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Joshua ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1275 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,104 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,778
• List price: $307,999
• Delta: -21.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4405 Chisholm Trl	1.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,992 (+7%)	2mo	$415,000	$208	47
11008 Flores Trl	1.42mi	4/2.0	2,075 (+11%)	1mo	$499,900	$241	45
3401 Brett Jackson Dr	1.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,882 (+1%)	16mo	$675,000	$359	45
11832 Frazier Ln	1.01mi	4/3.0	1,936 (+4%)	16mo	$420,000	$217	42
10112 Lavinder Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,128 (+14%)	4mo	$349,000	$164	42
10908 Flores Trl	1.34mi	4/2.0	2,196 (+18%)	3mo	$520,000	$237	38
11621 Creekview Rd	0.83mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,709 (-8%)	13mo	$400,000	$234	35
1709 County Road 920a	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,665 (-11%)	10mo	$320,000	$192	33
4300 Jennifer Ln	1.37mi	4/2.0	2,147 (+15%)	10mo	$385,000	$179	32
11701 Stonefield St	1.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,681 (-10%)	19mo	$319,000	$190	28
10517 Singleton Ln	0.87mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-10%)	27mo	$275,000	$164	23
11713 Frazier Ln	1.14mi	4/3.0	2,187 (+17%)	34mo	$390,000	$178	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-63,380
• Equity at exit: $45,924

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-77,312
• Equity at exit: $26,630

Cash invested: $86,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 2 under contract
• Median asking: $287,999 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 13 d
• This list price: 80% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1275
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,620/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $281,332

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-78	+0% $-184	+5% $-291	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-282	+0% $-184	+5% $-87	+10% $10
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-106	base $-184	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,000
• Closing costs: $9,240
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $307,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $307,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-05-10
   price $301,999 348-char remark
4. 2026-04-24
   price $305,999 348-char remark
5. 2026-04-22
   listed $328,999 Active 348-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,253
• − Property taxes: −$4,620
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,363
• − Management: −$2,363
• − Depreciation: −$8,960
• Taxable loss: −$7,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a spacious open-concept layout. The exterior is in good condition, and the property is move-in ready with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Caddo Grove El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle R C Loflin Middle D- TX #540/1,662 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Joshua H S F TX #774/1,632 Nat'l #7,961/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tarrant County · 179,678 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B