226 Cart Rd Unit C

Dover Plains, NY 12522

$615,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,188 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax + insurance: −$1,083
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$933
• Net cashflow: $-798/mo
• Annual: $-9,581/yr
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $172,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $615k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $474k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $444k (27.8% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $444k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wingdale Elementary School (246 students, 68% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 38% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Dover Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $615k implies a 970% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$106k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.