226 Cart Rd Unit C · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$615,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2002 2.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Colonial is being offered for sale for the very first time. Lovingly built and cared for by its original owner, the home is set on a scenic 2.7-acre lot with open lawn, mature landscaping, established vegetable garden, and an idyllic creek along the rear of the property. From the moment you arrive, the peaceful setting and classic curb appeal make a lasting impression. A wide covered front porch welcomes you in, and wraps around to a rear deck that offers another inviting outdoor space overlooking the beautiful, well-kept grounds. Inside, high ceiling and large windows fill the home with natural light and highlight a comfortable, well-designed

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Idyllic creek
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• SCENIC LOT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• ESTABLISHED VEGETABLE GARDEN
• IDYLLIC CREEK
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Space for 4 vehicles
• Security:
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area recorded from public records; Property condition: Actual
• Construction: Wood siding; Year built information not provided; Roof and foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Pergola; Shed(s); Partial wood fencing; Back yard; Front yard; Garden; Landscaped yard; Near shops; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination; Hardwood; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Oil heating with ducts and hot air distribution
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Deck; Porch; Fireplace in family room; Basement access via Bilco doors; Full unfinished basement; Attic with crawl space and pull-down stairs; Dining area; Library/den
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $615k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $474k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $444k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $444k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wingdale Elementary School (246 students, 68% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 38% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Dover Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$106k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $615k implies a 970% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $444,320 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.56%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $284,198
• Equity at exit: $554,041

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $877,110
• Equity at exit: $1,194,810

Cash invested: $172,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax from tax record: −$827 /mo · $9,926/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$933
• Net cashflow: $-798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,454

Max offer price $473,961

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-450	-5% $-624	+0% $-798	+5% $-972	+10% $-1,147
Rent	-10% $-1,149	-5% $-974	+0% $-798	+5% $-623	+10% $-447
Rate	-1.0pp $-489	-0.5pp $-642	base $-798	+0.5pp $-958	+1.0pp $-1,120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,750
• Closing costs: $18,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $615,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $615,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $615,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $615,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $615,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $615,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $615,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $615,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $615,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $615,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $615,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $615,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $615,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,926 · $827/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,160 · $847/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$19/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,450
• − Property taxes: −$9,926
• − Insurance: −$3,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,265
• − Management: −$4,265
• − Depreciation: −$17,891
• Taxable loss: −$20,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,933
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+969.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $615,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,926 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.