540 Conklin Rd

Mattituck, NY 11952

$899,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,563/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$1,343
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,848
• Net cashflow: $4,657/mo
• Annual: $55,884/yr
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.40%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($56k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $899k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($818k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $818k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $899k implies a 520% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.