540 Conklin Rd · Mattituck, NY 11952

$899,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 1976 0.35 ac lot $558/sqft · at area comps Est $913k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set against a backdrop of preserved farmland, this exquisite move in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath Mattituck retreat captures the essence of North Fork living with waterviews, farm views and unforgettable, color-drenched sunsets. Designed with an open floor plan, the home is filled with natural light and offers effortless flow for everyday living and entertaining featuring a wood burning fireplace with wood burning cast-iron stove inside. A newly updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, real wood cabinets and beautifully renovated bathrooms elevate the interior with modern comfort and style. Step outside to an expansive upper deck and lower patio—ideal vantage points to take in the peaceful agricultural landscape and evening skies. Perfectly positioned, enjoy easy access to Love Lane’s beloved boutiques, cafe's, and wineries, while Bailee's Beach is just moments away for sun-soaked days by the water. Located .6 miles from the LIRR and Hampton Jitney. Exceptional living at its finest, this home boasts wood floors and Anderson Windows throughout, brand new AC units, newer boiler, updated septic, new Anderson front door, public water, 2023 new chimney lining and chimney refaced, newer appliances 2019-2024, newer leaf guard gutters and propane for gas cooking. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a weekend escape, this property delivers privacy, proximity, and picturesque beauty in one of the North Fork’s most sought-after locations.

Key facts

• Expansive upper deck
• Open floor plan
• Renovated bathrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEWLY UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• EXPANSIVE UPPER DECK
• LOWER PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($56k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $899k).
• Recommended offer: $818k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($818k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $899k implies a 520% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $818,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.40%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $913,376
• List price: $899,000
• Delta: -1.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3445 Wickham Ave	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (-1%)	8mo	$999,000	$629	76
780 Westview Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+9%)	1mo	$795,000	$454	62
870 Horton Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+6%)	3mo	$699,000	$411	55
11850 Old Sound Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,421 (-12%)	17mo	$570,000	$401	35
1015 Knollwood Ln	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,850 (+15%)	6mo	$984,000	$532	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $151,039
• Equity at exit: $134,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $513,895
• Equity at exit: $77,729

Cash invested: $251,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11952

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax from tax record: −$508 /mo · $6,100/yr
• Insurance: −$375
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,848
• Net cashflow: $4,657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,668

Max offer price $899,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,166	-5% $4,911	+0% $4,657	+5% $4,403	+10% $4,148
Rent	-10% $3,586	-5% $4,121	+0% $4,657	+5% $5,193	+10% $5,728
Rate	-1.0pp $5,110	-0.5pp $4,886	base $4,657	+0.5pp $4,424	+1.0pp $4,187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,750
• Closing costs: $26,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 Maple Ln Mattituck, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,700	$2.06	44d	1	0.44mi
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	44d	1	1.08mi
610 Park Ave Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.0	1900	$44,000	$23.16	25d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $899,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $899,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $899,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $899,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $899,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $899,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $899,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $899,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $899,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $899,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $899,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $899,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $899,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $899,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $899,000 1490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1490 chars)

    Set against a backdrop of preserved farmland, this exquisite move in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath Mattituck retreat captures the essence of North Fork living with waterviews, farm views and unforgettable, color-drenched sunsets. Designed with an open floor plan, the home is filled with natural light and offers effortless flow for everyday living and entertaining featuring a wood burning fireplace with wood burning cast-iron stove inside. A newly updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, real wood cabinets and beautifully renovated bathrooms elevate the interior with modern comfort and style. Step outside to an expansive upper deck and lower patio—ideal vantage points to take in the peaceful agricultural landscape and evening skies. Perfectly positioned, enjoy easy access to Love Lane’s beloved boutiques, cafe's, and wineries, while Bailee's Beach is just moments away for sun-soaked days by the water. Located .6 miles from the LIRR and Hampton Jitney. Exceptional living at its finest, this home boasts wood floors and Anderson Windows throughout, brand new AC units, newer boiler, updated septic, new Anderson front door, public water, 2023 new chimney lining and chimney refaced, newer appliances 2019-2024, newer leaf guard gutters and propane for gas cooking. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a weekend escape, this property delivers privacy, proximity, and picturesque beauty in one of the North Fork’s most sought-after locations.

16. 2026-03-16
    listed $910,000 Active 1490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1490 chars)

    Set against a backdrop of preserved farmland, this exquisite move in ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath Mattituck retreat captures the essence of North Fork living with waterviews, farm views and unforgettable, color-drenched sunsets. Designed with an open floor plan, the home is filled with natural light and offers effortless flow for everyday living and entertaining featuring a wood burning fireplace with wood burning cast-iron stove inside. A newly updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, real wood cabinets and beautifully renovated bathrooms elevate the interior with modern comfort and style. Step outside to an expansive upper deck and lower patio—ideal vantage points to take in the peaceful agricultural landscape and evening skies. Perfectly positioned, enjoy easy access to Love Lane’s beloved boutiques, cafe's, and wineries, while Bailee's Beach is just moments away for sun-soaked days by the water. Located .6 miles from the LIRR and Hampton Jitney. Exceptional living at its finest, this home boasts wood floors and Anderson Windows throughout, brand new AC units, newer boiler, updated septic, new Anderson front door, public water, 2023 new chimney lining and chimney refaced, newer appliances 2019-2024, newer leaf guard gutters and propane for gas cooking. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a weekend escape, this property delivers privacy, proximity, and picturesque beauty in one of the North Fork’s most sought-after locations.

17. 1986-03-05
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,100 · $508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,646 · $887/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,547/yr (+$379/mo · 74.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $162,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,358
• − Property taxes: −$6,100
• − Insurance: −$10,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,020
• − Management: −$13,020
• − Depreciation: −$26,153
• Taxable income: $44,084
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,580
• After-tax cash flow: $45,304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mattituck

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #461
• US rank: #8015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mattituck, NY
• City population: 4,749
• Population (ZIP): 4,749

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.04%
• Current HPI: 453.8895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+520.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $910,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,100 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.