5812 Cedars Rd #34

Redding, CA 96001

$104,990C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 730 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$602
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-270/mo
• Annual: $-3,246/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $29,397

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (37.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sycamore Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 244 students, 75% FRL); Sequoia Middle (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #162 of 498 statewide, top 33%, 411 students, 69% FRL); Shasta High (math 53% / reading 76%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 1,333 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 16% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $105k implies a 577% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.