2512 Carolwood Ln

Dallas, TX 75212

$519,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,921 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,089/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax + insurance: −$1,212
• HOA: −$263
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-1,761/mo
• Annual: $-21,136/yr
• Cap rate: 2.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.52%
• DSCR: 0.35
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $145,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $520k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (54.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (40.6% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $239k (54.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jesus Moroles Expressive Arts Vanguard (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 627 students, 75% FRL); D A Hulcy Steam Middle (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 423 students, 88% FRL); L G Pinkston H S (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 1,139 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 14342% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,089/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 892% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.