2512 Carolwood Ln · Dallas, TX 75212

$519,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,921 sqft · Townhouse public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2022 1,917 sqft lot $271/sqft · 17% below area Est $632k · 18% under $263/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Showings will begin on Monday, March 22. Discover this stunning, 2022 build featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. This home boasts modern finishes, a large kitchen, and an open living space with a spacious balcony perfect for entertaining. The large primary suite includes an en-suite bath and an oversized closet. Unique to this community, this floor plan offers a large covered patio right off the yard. Enjoy luxury community amenities including a large pool, bowling alley, fitness center, golf simulator, and hosting space. Plus, you'll soon have direct access to the upcoming 5-acre lagoon. These amenities are incredibly unique to a single family home community. Come see this exceptional home for yourself! Buyer and buyer’s agent to verify accuracy of all information including room & lot sizes, schools, taxes, amenities, HOA, etc. Neither Seller nor Listing Agent makes any warranties or representation as to accuracy.

Key facts

• Spacious balcony
• Large pool
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• SPACIOUS BALCONY
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• LUXURY COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• LARGE POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $520k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (54.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (40.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (54.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jesus Moroles Expressive Arts Vanguard (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 627 students, 75% FRL); D A Hulcy Steam Middle (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 423 students, 88% FRL); L G Pinkston H S (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 1,139 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,089/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 892% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($473k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 14342% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,899 (54.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.52%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $631,967
• List price: $519,900
• Delta: -17.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1012 Bastion Ct	0.27mi	3/3.5	1,800 (-6%)	12mo	$564,000	$313	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $162,341
• Equity at exit: $468,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $550,912
• Equity at exit: $1,010,051

Cash invested: $145,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75212

• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,726
• Tax from tax record: −$995 /mo · $11,945/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-1,761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,318

Max offer price $238,899

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,467	-5% $-1,614	+0% $-1,761	+5% $-1,908	+10% $-2,056
Rent	-10% $-2,005	-5% $-1,883	+0% $-1,761	+5% $-1,639	+10% $-1,517
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,499	-0.5pp $-1,629	base $-1,761	+0.5pp $-1,896	+1.0pp $-2,033

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,975
• Closing costs: $15,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2635 Carmelita St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2237	$3,399	$1.52	26d	1	0.07mi
2601 La Altura Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2233	$4,200	$1.88	45d	1	0.07mi
2654 Carolwood Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2174	$3,500	$1.61	45d	1	0.09mi
2633 La Altura Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2170	$3,650	$1.68	14d	1	0.09mi
2806 Chicago St Dallas, TX	4.0	3.5	1976	$2,900	$1.47	26d	1	0.15mi
1190 Manacor Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1849	$2,999	$1.62	14d	1	0.23mi
1130 Tea Olive Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$3,000	$1.71	45d	1	0.27mi
1115 Manacor Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1827	$3,200	$1.75	26d	1	0.27mi
1293 Clifftop Ln Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1411	$2,900	$2.06	45d	1	0.29mi
1040 Tea Olive Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2326	$3,800	$1.63	6d	1	0.31mi
1010 Singleton Blvd Unit 1043 Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1581	$3,127	$1.98	0d	1	0.34mi
3105 Chihuahua Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	2214	$3,200	$1.45	17d	1	0.34mi
3122 Chihuahua Ave Unit 1510240P Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$5,369	$2.47	1d	1	0.36mi
990 Singleton Blvd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	942	$2,235	$2.37	1d	26	0.38mi
909 Bayonne St Dallas, TX	4.0	3.5	2300	$4,300	$1.87	45d	1	0.38mi
3129 Rutz St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	2102	$7,850	$3.73	45d	1	0.39mi
3129 Rutz St Unit 1241909P Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$9,353	$4.46	24d	1	0.39mi
1849 Pollard St Dallas, TX	4.0	4.5	2438	$3,995	$1.64	45d	1	0.41mi
2811 Harston St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,950	$1.52	45d	1	0.43mi
3226 Navaro St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,500	$1.62	45d	1	0.45mi
3237 Chihuahua Ave Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	2251	$4,500	$2.00	45d	1	0.47mi
3321 Rutz St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1436	$2,550	$1.78	6d	1	0.53mi
1907 Nomas St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,900	$2.12	20d	1	0.58mi
1000 Fort Worth Ave Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1951	$4,722	$2.42	0d	5	0.58mi
718 Fort Worth Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	1452	$2,672	$1.84	24d	1	0.60mi
718 Fort Worth Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	1452	$2,672	$1.84	14d	1	0.60mi
750 Fort Worth Ave Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,903	$2.05	26d	10	0.67mi
750 Fort Worth Ave Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	1268	$2,057	$1.62	45d	1	0.67mi
750 Fort Worth Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,149	$2.15	0d	23	0.67mi
660 Yorktown St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	922	$1,915	$2.08	0d	20	0.70mi
3517 Chicago St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	1538	$1,200	$0.78	8d	1	0.71mi
3525 Rutz St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2451	$4,000	$1.63	9d	1	0.73mi
1723 Shaw St Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	1720	$2,699	$1.57	9d	1	0.76mi
1610 Life Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$2,800	$1.69	45d	1	0.77mi
411 W Commerce St Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1155	$1,930	$1.67	0d	21	0.81mi
1916 Shaw St Dallas, TX	4.0	3.0	2283	$2,675	$1.17	22d	1	0.81mi
444 W Commerce St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	971	$2,193	$2.26	0d	17	0.82mi
320 Singleton Blvd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$2,069	$2.37	0d	15	0.89mi
1330 Winding Brook Ln Unit 1363 Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	0d	1	0.91mi
1834 Bayside St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,000	$1.51	19d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $263 · $3,156/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $519,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $519,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $519,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $519,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $519,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $519,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $519,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $519,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $519,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $519,900 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $519,900 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    historical $3,600
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $3,600
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $519,900 Active 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Showings will begin on Monday, March 22. Discover this stunning, 2022 build featuring 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. This home boasts modern finishes, a large kitchen, and an open living space with a spacious balcony perfect for entertaining. The large primary suite includes an en-suite bath and an oversized closet. Unique to this community, this floor plan offers a large covered patio right off the yard. Enjoy luxury community amenities including a large pool, bowling alley, fitness center, golf simulator, and hosting space. Plus, you'll soon have direct access to the upcoming 5-acre lagoon. These amenities are incredibly unique to a single family home community. Come see this exceptional home for yourself! Buyer and buyer’s agent to verify accuracy of all information including room & lot sizes, schools, taxes, amenities, HOA, etc. Neither Seller nor Listing Agent makes any warranties or representation as to accuracy.

18. 2025-03-25
    soldstatus
19. 2025-02-04
    historical $3,250
20. 2025-01-21
    price $3,250
21. 2024-12-04
    price $3,450
22. 2024-11-23
    historical
23. 2024-10-20
    price $3,600
24. 2024-08-22
    price $3,950
25. 2024-08-21
    price $639,900
26. 2024-08-06
    listed $4,000
27. 2024-07-31
    listed $649,900 Active
28. 2022-10-27
    soldstatus Closed
29. 2022-08-30
    status Pending
30. 2022-08-06
    price $629,000
31. 2022-07-08
    listed $643,000 Active
32. 2022-03-21
    status Pending
33. 2022-03-14
    historical
34. 2022-03-04
    price $643,000
35. 2022-02-17
    price $623,000
36. 2022-01-10
    price $613,000
37. 2021-08-23
    price $553,000
38. 2021-05-14
    price $533,000
39. 2021-05-13
    listed $513,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,945 · $995/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,945 · $995/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,122
• − Property taxes: −$11,945
• − Insurance: −$2,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,965
• − Management: −$2,965
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$15,124
• Taxable loss: −$30,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,259
• Household income: $59,750
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 892.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 26% Black 23% White 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 52% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 138.69%
• Current HPI: 477.2035
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.21%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Rental Removed $3,600 NTREIS
• 2026-03-21 Listed for Rent $3,600 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $519,900 NTREIS
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-04 Rental Removed $3,250 NTREIS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $3,250 NTREIS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $3,450 NTREIS
• 2024-11-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-20 Price Changed $3,600 NTREIS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $3,950 NTREIS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $639,900 NTREIS
• 2024-08-06 Listed for Rent $4,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-31 Listed $649,900 NTREIS
• 2022-10-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-08-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-08-06 Price Changed $629,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-08 Listed $643,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-03-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-03-04 Price Changed $643,000 NTREIS
• 2022-02-17 Price Changed $623,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-10 Price Changed $613,000 NTREIS
• 2021-08-23 Price Changed $553,000 NTREIS
• 2021-05-14 Price Changed $533,000 NTREIS
• 2021-05-13 Listed $513,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,945 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.