1064B Buckingham Dr

Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$305,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$508
• HOA: −$410
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-272/mo
• Annual: $-3,266/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $266k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $265k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,843/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.