Is 1064B Buckingham Dr in Leisure Village West, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.1% cap rate and $-295/mo modeled cash flow at a $299,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1064B Buckingham Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,809/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 43.56

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +11.5/30.0
ARV discount +10.7/15.0
1% rule +4.7/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
DSCR +3.6/10.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Schools +3.3/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$299,000

1064B Buckingham Dr · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1986 Good condition 7,840 sqft lot 1-car garage $251/sqft · 7% below area Est $322k · 7% under $448/mo HOA · 16% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

LIVING IS EASY IN THIS IMMACULATE AND SPACIOUS ROXY MODEL IN 55+ LEISURE VILLAGE WEST. EAT-IN-KITCHEN HAS NEWER SS APPLIANCES (2024), GAS COOKING & A WALL OF WINDOWS THAT OFFER LOTS OF NATURAL SUNLIGHT. THIS HOME BOASTS ALL NEWER LUXURY VINYL FLOORING THRU-OUT (2024). THE LR/DR OFFERS SOARING CEILINGS & AN OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR ENTERTAINING FAMILY OR GUESTS. NEWER AIR CONDITION COILS (2024), & FRESHLY PAINTED THRU OUT (2024). MASTER BEDROOM HAS WALL-TO-WALL CLOSETS, CEILING FAN & AN ADJOINING BATH W/STALL SHOWER. 2ND BEDROOM HAS X-LARGE CLOSET AND CEILING FAN. NEWER WINDOWS IN MOST OF THE HOME. ENJOY YOUR MORNING COFFEE & RELAX ON YOUR SCREENED PORCH OR UNWIND ON YOUR PRIVATE BACK PATIO TO EMBRACE OUTDOOR LIVING. LVW HAS A SUPERIOR MAINTENANCE PROGRAM AND CLUBS /ACTIVITIES.

Key facts

Gated community
Screened in porch
Fitness center

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (6.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $256k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 1086 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,809/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,302 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.94% ✗
Cap rate: 5.11%
Cash-on-cash: -4.23%
DSCR: 0.81
GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $321,742
List price: $299,000
Delta: -5.20%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1101 Thornbury Ln Unit B	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,193 (0%)	3mo	$339,000	$284	94
1042 Canterbury Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,193 (0%)	1mo	$312,000	$262	89
1042B Canterbury Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,193 (0%)	1mo	$312,000	$262	88
873B Liverpool Cir	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,164 (-2%)	4mo	$306,000	$263	78
943 Liverpool Cir Unit B	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,164 (-2%)	3mo	$190,000	$163	76
715C Wooton Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+4%)	6mo	$284,000	$228	73
945A Liverpool Cir Unit A	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+4%)	3mo	$248,500	$200	72
815B Liverpool Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+4%)	3mo	$225,000	$181	71
549-A Mayfair Rd	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,243 (+4%)	2mo	$225,000	$181	62
107 West Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+1%)	5mo	$211,500	$176	57
1991 Route 37 W #112	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+5%)	2mo	$198,500	$159	51
508 Riverside Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,296 (+9%)	0mo	$470,000	$363	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -23.3%
Equity multiple: 0.20×
Total profit: $-66,927
Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

IRR: -17.6%
Equity multiple: 0.03×
Total profit: $-81,188
Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 36 active · 40 under contract
Months of supply: 4.7 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $289,500 ($222/sqft)
Median days on market: 47 d
This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +21.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

Active inventory: 1086
Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,809 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
Insurance: −$125
HOA: −$448
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,183

Max offer price $256,302

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-88	-5% $-192	+0% $-295	+5% $-398	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-517	-5% $-406	+0% $-295	+5% $-184	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-145	-0.5pp $-219	base $-295	+0.5pp $-373	+1.0pp $-451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,750
Closing costs: $8,970
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	117d	1	0.38mi
43 3rd St Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1346	$3,200	$2.38	47d	1	0.48mi
43 3rd St Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1346	$3,000	$2.23	0d	1	0.48mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	1.0–2.0	2.0	1375	$3,150	$2.29	0d	5	0.59mi
517A Cheshire Ct Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1381	$2,250	$1.63	18d	1	0.70mi
809 Commonwealth Blvd Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1226	$3,000	$2.45	29d	1	1.03mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	139d	1	1.05mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	5d	1	1.08mi
35C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	964	$1,950	$2.02	6d	1	1.21mi
1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,700	$2.16	78d	1	1.24mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	139d	1	1.27mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	139d	1	1.35mi
2 Leighton Ln #2 Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1317	$2,900	$2.20	0d	1	1.39mi
1200 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$3,200	$2.56	24d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Leisure Village West HOAMonthly HOA fee of $448HOA covers common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removalCommunity amenities include exercise room, community room, swimming pool, golf course, clubhouse, common areas, jogging path, landscaping, and bocci

Exterior

Parking: Attached 1-car garage
Utilities: Public sewer
Home design: Model: RoxyFee simple ownership
Exterior features: Timberline roof

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas stoveMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
Flooring: Ceramic tileLaminate
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Dishwasher, Microwave, Stove, RefrigeratorGarage door openerGas cookingNo fireplacesNo basement
Laundry & utility: Washer, Dryer

HOA detail $448/mo · $5,376/yr

Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $299,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $299,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-14

remarks 687-char remark
2026-09-14

days on marketlisting id $299,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $299,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $299,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $299,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $305,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $305,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $305,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $305,000 Active 140 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $305,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $305,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $305,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $305,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $305,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $305,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $305,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $305,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $305,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $305,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $305,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $305,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $305,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $305,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $305,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $305,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $305,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $305,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $305,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $305,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $305,000 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $305,000 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $305,000 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $305,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $305,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $305,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $305,000 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $305,000 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $305,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $305,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $305,000 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $33,710
− Mortgage interest: −$16,749
− Property taxes: −$4,485
− Insurance: −$1,495
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,697
− Management: −$2,697
− HOA: −$5,376
− Depreciation: −$8,698
Taxable loss: −$8,486

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,037
After-tax cash flow: $-1,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,965–$17,895 screening

This home is in good condition with recent updates, including new appliances, flooring, and windows. It is move-in ready with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Manchester Township Elementary School F NJ #642/1,303 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Manchester Township School District
NCES district ID: 3409450
Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $38,905
Composite: 28.8/100
National rank: #6662
State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Leisure Village West

Score: 70/100
State rank: #261
US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
County: Ocean · 586,991 people
Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
Population (ZIP): 34,290
Household income: $55,000
Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 586,991 people
By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
Current HPI: 274.4679
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

+12.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-09-14 Listed $299,000 MOMLS
2026-09-06 Price Changed $299,000 MOMLS
2026-06-09 Price Changed $305,000 MOMLS
2026-05-31 Price Changed $299,000 MOMLS
2026-04-23 Relisted — MOMLS
2026-04-23 Price Changed $314,900 MOMLS
2026-03-14 Listed $325,000 MOMLS
2024-09-24 Sold (MLS) $264,900 MOMLS
2024-08-14 Pending — MOMLS
2024-08-05 Listed $264,900 MOMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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