1064B Buckingham Dr · Manchester, NJ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $526 – $976
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 65.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +11.2/30.0
- ARV discount +9.9/15.0
- 1% rule +4.5/10.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- DSCR +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$299,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
LIVING IS EASY IN THIS IMMACULATE AND SPACIOUS ROXY MODEL IN 55+ LEISURE VILLAGE WEST. EAT-IN-KITCHEN HAS NEWER SS APPLIANCES (2024), GAS COOKING & A WALL OF WINDOWS THAT OFFER LOTS OF NATURAL SUNLIGHT. THIS HOME BOASTS ALL NEWER LUXURY VINYL FLOORING THRU-OUT (2024). THE LR/DR OFFERS SOARING CEILINGS & AN OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR ENTERTAINING FAMILY OR GUESTS. NEWER AIR CONDITION COILS (2024), & FRESHLY PAINTED THRU OUT (2024). MASTER BEDROOM HAS WALL-TO-WALL CLOSETS, CEILING FAN & AN ADJOINING BATH W/STALL SHOWER. 2ND BEDROOM HAS X-LARGE CLOSET AND CEILING FAN. NEWER WINDOWS IN MOST OF THE HOME. ENJOY YOUR MORNING COFFEE & RELAX ON YOUR SCREENED PORCH OR UNWIND ON YOUR PRIVATE BACK PATIO TO EMBRACE OUTDOOR LIVING. LVW HAS A SUPERIOR MAINTENANCE PROGRAM AND CLUBS /ACTIVITIES.
Key facts
- Gated community
- Screened in porch
- Fitness center
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (19.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (10.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $242k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Manchester Township Elementary School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #642 of 1,303 statewide, top 50%, 514 students, 45% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 1273 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,685/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.90% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.72%
- Cash-on-cash
- -5.63%
- DSCR
- 0.75
- GRM
- 9.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $315,869
- List price
- $299,000
- Delta
- -5.34%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1101 Thornbury Ln Unit B | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 | 1,193 (0%) | 4mo | $339,000 | $284 | 93 |
| 1042 Canterbury Dr | 0.23mi | 2/2.0 | 1,193 (0%) | 2mo | $312,000 | $262 | 87 |
| 1042B Canterbury Dr | 0.24mi | 2/2.0 | 1,193 (0%) | 2mo | $312,000 | $262 | 87 |
| 715A Wooton Ct | 0.33mi | 2/2.0 | 1,164 (-2%) | 2mo | $265,000 | $228 | 79 |
| 943 Liverpool Cir Unit B | 0.37mi | 2/2.0 | 1,164 (-2%) | 4mo | $190,000 | $163 | 75 |
| 945A Liverpool Cir Unit A | 0.40mi | 2/2.0 | 1,243 (+4%) | 5mo | $248,500 | $200 | 70 |
| 815B Liverpool Cir | 0.42mi | 2/2.0 | 1,243 (+4%) | 4mo | $225,000 | $181 | 70 |
| 684A Friar Ct | 0.57mi | 2/2.0 | 1,164 (-2%) | 1mo | $249,900 | $215 | 69 |
| 519B Cheshire Ct | 0.70mi | 2/2.0 | 1,164 (-2%) | 0mo | $236,000 | $203 | 63 |
| 549-A Mayfair Rd | 0.63mi | 2/2.0 | 1,243 (+4%) | 3mo | $225,000 | $181 | 61 |
| 1991 Route 37 W #112 | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,248 (+5%) | 3mo | $198,500 | $159 | 50 |
| 508 Riverside Ave | 0.65mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,296 (+9%) | 2mo | $470,000 | $363 | 45 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -25.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.13×
- Total profit
- $-73,166
- Equity at exit
- $44,582
- IRR
- -21.9%
- Equity multiple
- -0.13×
- Total profit
- $-94,661
- Equity at exit
- $25,852
Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 21 Tenant-Leaning
- State New Jersey
- 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 44 active · 48 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $285,950 ($217/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 44 d
- This list price
- 57% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +22.1% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 08759
- Active inventory
- 1273
- Price-to-rent
- 9.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,685 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,568
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
- Insurance
- −$125
- HOA
- −$448
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$564
- Net cashflow
- $-393
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-186 | -5% $-290 | +0% $-393 | +5% $-496 | +10% $-600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-605 | -5% $-499 | +0% $-393 | +5% $-287 | +10% $-181 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-242 | -0.5pp $-317 | base $-393 | +0.5pp $-470 | +1.0pp $-549 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $74,750
- Closing costs
- $8,970
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 17 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1280 | $3,000 | $2.34 | 163d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 43 3rd St Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1346 | $3,000 | $2.23 | 10d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 43 3rd St Manchester, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1346 | $3,200 | $2.38 | 8d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ | 1.0–2.0 | 2.0 | 1375 | $3,150 | $2.29 | 0d | 5 | 0.59mi |
| 517A Cheshire Ct Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1381 | $2,250 | $1.63 | 64d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 77 Cambridge Cir Manchester Township, NJ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 858 | $1,700 | $1.98 | 2d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 809 Commonwealth Blvd Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1226 | $3,000 | $2.45 | 74d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1300 | $2,775 | $2.13 | 184d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1224 | $2,299 | $1.88 | 50d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 33B Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1050 | $1,800 | $1.71 | 6d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 453A Chesterfield Ct Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 946 | $2,000 | $2.11 | 10d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 35C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 964 | $1,950 | $2.02 | 10d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 1033 Birmingham Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1250 | $2,700 | $2.16 | 123d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 836 | $2,200 | $2.63 | 184d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 967 | $2,200 | $2.28 | 184d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 2 Leighton Ln #2 Manchester Township, NJ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1317 | $2,900 | $2.20 | 43d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 1200 Lawrence Ave Toms River, NJ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1248 | $3,200 | $2.56 | 70d | 1 | 1.40mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Leisure Village West HOAMonthly HOA fee of $448HOA covers common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removalCommunity amenities include exercise room, community room, swimming pool, golf course, clubhouse, common areas, jogging path, landscaping, and bocci
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 1-car garage
- Utilities
- Public sewer
- Home design
- Model: RoxyFee simple ownership
- Exterior features
- Timberline roof
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherGas stoveMicrowaveRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms
- Flooring
- Ceramic tileLaminate
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Washer, Dryer, Dishwasher, Microwave, Stove, RefrigeratorGarage door openerGas cookingNo fireplacesNo basement
- Laundry & utility
- Washer, Dryer
HOA detail $448/mo · $5,376/yr
- Likely covers
- gas
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-11-08days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
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2026-11-07days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-11-06days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
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2026-11-05days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
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2026-11-04days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-11-02days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-11-01days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-10-31days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-10-30days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
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2026-10-29days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-10-28days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-10-27days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
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2026-10-26days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-10-25days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-10-24days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-10-23days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
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2026-10-22days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-10-21days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
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2026-10-18days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
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2026-10-13days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
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2026-10-10days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
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2026-10-09days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-10-03days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-10-01days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-09-29days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-09-28days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
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2026-09-27days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
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2026-09-26days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
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2026-09-25days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-09-24days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
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2026-09-23days on market $299,000 Active 10 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $299,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $32,222
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,749
- − Property taxes
- −$4,485
- − Insurance
- −$1,495
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,578
- − Management
- −$2,578
- − HOA
- −$5,376
- − Depreciation
- −$8,698
- Taxable loss
- −$9,736
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,337
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,380/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo
This home is in good condition with recent updates, including new appliances, flooring, and windows. It is move-in ready with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Manchester Township School District
- NCES district ID
- 3409450
- Math proficiency
- 25% ▼ -17.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 44% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $38,905
- Composite
- 28.8/100
- National rank
- #6662
- State rank
- #320 of 472 in NJ
Livability — Manchester
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Leisure Village West, NJ
- County
- Ocean · 586,991 people
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
- Population (ZIP)
- 34,290
- Household income
- $55,000
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 11% of renters
Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 586,991 people
- By 2030
- 581,403 · -1.0%
- By 2040
- 564,913 · -3.8%
- By 2050
- 538,149 · -8.3%
- By 2075
- 468,845 · -20.1%
- By 2100
- 350,297 · -40.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 2%
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Ocean
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -347.85%
- Current HPI
- 274.4679
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.05%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Goods | 3 | $31B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $153B |
|
||
| Technology | 2 | $21B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $20B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $19B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $70B |
|
||
Price history
+12.9% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-09-14 Listed $299,000 MOMLS
- 2026-09-06 Price Changed $299,000 MOMLS
- 2026-06-09 Price Changed $305,000 MOMLS
- 2026-05-31 Price Changed $299,000 MOMLS
- 2026-04-23 Price Changed $314,900 MOMLS
- 2026-03-14 Listed $325,000 MOMLS
- 2024-09-24 Sold (MLS) $264,900 MOMLS
- 2024-08-14 Pending — MOMLS
- 2024-08-05 Listed $264,900 MOMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…