1315 9TH St

Union City, NJ 07047

$659,000F

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · Built 1916 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,326/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,456
• Tax + insurance: −$1,018
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$909
• Net cashflow: $-1,055/mo
• Annual: $-12,666/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $184,520

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $659k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $473k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $433k (34.3% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $433k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Bergen School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #393 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $659k implies a 559% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,326/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3908% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.