1315 9TH St · Union City, NJ 07047

$659,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1916

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BANK OWNED TWO FAMILY FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS OVER 2, FINISHED BASEMENT. ACCESS TO BACKYARD FROM 1ST FLOOR APT. NEAR SCHOOLS AND TRANSPORTATION TO NEW YORK. BUYERS MUST BE PREQUALIFIED BY CHL. FREE APPRAISAL & CREDIT REPORT IF BUYER FINANCES THROUGH CHL.

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Unfinished basement
• Nice backyard

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• NICE BACKYARD
• 10-MINUTE COMMUTE TO NYC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Personal property excluded from sale
• Financial info: Reported floor 1 rent: $2,000; Reported floor 2 rent: $2,100

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: Heat expense reported (annual)
• Home design: Multi-unit property with separate units on two levels
• Construction: Unfinished basement (foundation detail); Exterior finished with aluminum/vinyl
• Exterior features: Aluminum/vinyl exterior; Lot located on lot #119

Interior

• Kitchen: Two kitchens (one on each level)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor; Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (one full bath on each floor)
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning; Baseboard heating; Gas heating; Radiator heating
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Lead paint disclosure on file
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $659k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $472k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $433k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $433k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• North Bergen School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #393 of 472 in NJ (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,326/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3908% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $659k implies a 559% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $432,572 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.87%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-165,199
• Equity at exit: $98,259

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-192,647
• Equity at exit: $56,978

Cash invested: $184,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07047

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,456
• Tax from tax record: −$743 /mo · $8,915/yr
• Insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$908
• Net cashflow: $-1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,663

Max offer price $472,442

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-683	-5% $-870	+0% $-1,056	+5% $-1,243	+10% $-1,429
Rent	-10% $-1,398	-5% $-1,227	+0% $-1,056	+5% $-885	+10% $-714
Rate	-1.0pp $-724	-0.5pp $-888	base $-1,056	+0.5pp $-1,227	+1.0pp $-1,401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $164,750
• Closing costs: $19,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72 Charles St #2 Jersey City, NJ	5.0	3.0	1500	$4,495	$3.00	13d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $659,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $659,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $659,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 219-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $659,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 206-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $659,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,915 · $743/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,662 · $1,055/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,747/yr (+$312/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,914
• − Property taxes: −$8,915
• − Insurance: −$3,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,153
• − Management: −$4,153
• − Depreciation: −$19,171
• Taxable loss: −$24,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,926
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bergen School District
• NCES district ID: 3411460
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,275
• Composite: 21.95/100
• National rank: #8221
• State rank: #393 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Union City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #2998

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• City population: 66,463
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 61,250
• Household income: $78,911
• Rent vs Own: 58.4% rent · 41.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3908.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 26% White 20% Asian 7% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 11% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 50% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 61% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.36%
• Current HPI: 419.0283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+440.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $659,000 HCMLS
• 2020-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-22 Sold (MLS) $310,500 HCMLS
• 2008-07-11 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2008-07-11 Price Changed $328,900 HCMLS
• 2008-05-22 Listed $310,500 HCMLS
• 2006-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-31 Sold (MLS) $460,000 HCMLS
• 2006-03-29 Listed $449,900 HCMLS
• 2005-10-20 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2005-08-09 Listed $465,000 HCMLS
• 2003-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2003-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2003-10-28 Sold (MLS) $300,000 HCMLS
• 2003-06-10 Listed $315,000 HCMLS
• 1997-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,915 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.