19 Saint Thomas Ave

El Cerro Mission, NM 87031

$275,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Built 2000 · Other · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $498/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($498/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#330 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in El Cerro Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,458/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.