12030 Noble Chase Path

Dade City, FL 33525

$339,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,435 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,107
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$96
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-661/mo
• Annual: $-7,932/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $112,497

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-661 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (17.7% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $280k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,799/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.