12030 Noble Chase Path · Dade City, FL 33525

$339,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,435 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,200 sqft lot $96/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

Key facts

• New home community
• Easy access to sr-52
• Easy access to i-75

Tags

• NEW HOME COMMUNITY
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• EASY ACCESS TO SR-52
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLANS
• MODERN INTERIOR FINISHES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area (builder): 2,435 sq ft; Building area total: 2,885 sq ft; CDD applicable
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,700; Total monthly fees: $96 (Total annual fees: $1,152); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: KAI (monthly fee $96); HOA amenities include a pool; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-09-20); Two levels; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton — Model: Robie II; Builder license: CBC039052; Permit number: 20251117; Built on approximately 0.12 acres
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Park on site; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Home warranty included
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $401,775.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-661 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,799/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,945 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $401,775
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12090 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,589 (+6%)	17mo	$425,990	$165	53
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (-9%)	16mo	$375,000	$170	45
12239 Stirrup Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+11%)	12mo	$399,900	$148	43
38403 Honeysuckle Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	20mo	$365,990	$162	42
12183 Stirrup Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+11%)	16mo	$399,900	$148	41
12228 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,214 (-9%)	23mo	$379,990	$172	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-107,047
• Equity at exit: $59,906

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-146,783
• Equity at exit: $34,738

Cash invested: $112,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,107
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$502 /mo · $6,027/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,636

Max offer price $306,126

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-383	-5% $-522	+0% $-661	+5% $-800	+10% $-939
Rent	-10% $-882	-5% $-772	+0% $-661	+5% $-550	+10% $-440
Rate	-1.0pp $-459	-0.5pp $-559	base $-661	+0.5pp $-765	+1.0pp $-871

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,444
• Closing costs: $12,053
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	0d	1	0.40mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	25d	1	0.53mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,358	$1.19	0d	15	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,990 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,990 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,990 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,990 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,990 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,990 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,990 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,990 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $339,990 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,990 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    price $339,990
15. 2026-05-20
    price $339,990 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

16. 2026-05-13
    price $345,990
17. 2026-05-12
    price $345,990 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

18. 2026-04-08
    price $344,990 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $344,990

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $348,990 Active 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

21. 2026-03-19
    listed $348,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,506
• − Property taxes: −$6,027
• − Insurance: −$2,009
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,687
• − Management: −$2,687
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$11,688
• Taxable loss: −$15,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,639
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $345,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $344,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $348,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-19 Listed $348,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid