12030 Noble Chase Path · Dade City, FL 33525

$300,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,435 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,200 sqft lot 2-car garage $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all concrete block constructed, two-story plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living and dining area, and an outdoor patio. Upstairs, the oversized owner's suite can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as ensuite bathroom with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. CBC039052.

Key facts

• New home community
• Easy access to sr-52
• Easy access to i-75

Tags

• NEW HOME COMMUNITY
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS
• EASY ACCESS TO SR-52
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLANS
• MODERN INTERIOR FINISHES

🏗️ New construction. The $300,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $371,127.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-581 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco Elementary School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 586 students, 89% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 894 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,633/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,257 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,127
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -17.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12041 Fallow Down Dr	0.04mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+7%)	0mo	$354,990	$136	86
12014 Fallow Down Dr	0.06mi	5/3.0	2,605 (+7%)	1mo	$369,990	$142	84
12022 Noble Chase Path	0.01mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$329,990	$146	80
12013 Fallow Down Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0	2,077 (-15%)	0mo	$327,990	$158	74
12090 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,589 (+6%)	18mo	$425,990	$165	52
12152 Stirrup Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,207 (-9%)	18mo	$375,000	$170	43
12239 Stirrup Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+11%)	14mo	$399,900	$148	42
38408 Palomino Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,701 (+11%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	41
12139 Stirrup Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,711 (+11%)	16mo	$419,900	$155	41
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,095 (-14%)	17mo	$365,638	$175	40
12183 Stirrup Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,696 (+11%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	40
12195 Stirrup Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,711 (+11%)	17mo	$399,900	$148	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-96,994
• Equity at exit: $55,336

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-131,494
• Equity at exit: $32,088

Cash invested: $103,915 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 93 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 93.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $326,000 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 894
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,633 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,946
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,567/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $-581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,368

Max offer price $287,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-325	-5% $-453	+0% $-581	+5% $-709	+10% $-838
Rent	-10% $-789	-5% $-685	+0% $-581	+5% $-477	+10% $-373
Rate	-1.0pp $-394	-0.5pp $-487	base $-581	+0.5pp $-677	+1.0pp $-775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,782
• Closing costs: $11,134
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11877 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,100	$1.12	18d	1	0.15mi
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	21d	1	0.17mi
11996 Hilltop Farms Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2095	$2,700	$1.29	48d	1	0.40mi
12195 Stirrup Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2711	$2,700	$1.00	73d	1	0.53mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,388	$1.20	7d	8	0.60mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area (builder): 2,435 sq ft; Building area total: 2,885 sq ftCDD applicable
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,700Total monthly fees: $96 (Total annual fees: $1,152)Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: KAI (monthly fee $96)HOA amenities include a poolAssociation approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residenceUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-09-20)Two levelsFaces west
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: D.R. Horton — Model: Robie IIBuilder license: CBC039052Permit number: 20251117Built on approximately 0.12 acres
• Exterior features: Paved road accessPark on siteCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanBlindsDouble-pane windowsHome warranty included
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomWasherDryerIrrigation equipment

HOA detail $96/mo · $1,152/yr

• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $300,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $305,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $304,990 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $304,990 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $304,990 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $304,990 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $304,990 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $314,990 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $314,990 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $314,990 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $314,990 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $314,990 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $314,990 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $314,990 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $314,990 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $314,990 Active 120 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $334,990 Active 119 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $334,990 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $334,990 Active 116 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $334,990 Active 115 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $334,990 Active 114 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $334,990 Active 113 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $334,990 Active 112 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 110 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,990 Active 109 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,990 Active 108 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $339,990 Active 107 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 106 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 105 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 104 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $339,990 Active 103 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $339,990 Active 102 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $339,990 Active 101 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $339,990 Active 100 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $339,990 Active 99 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $339,990 Active 97 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $339,990 Active 95 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $339,990 Active 91 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $339,990 Active 90 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $339,990 Active 89 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $339,990 Active 88 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $339,990 Active 86 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $339,990 Active 82 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,990 Active 81 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 80 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,990 Active 77 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,990 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,789
• − Property taxes: −$5,567
• − Insurance: −$1,856
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,527
• − Management: −$2,527
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$10,796
• Taxable loss: −$13,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pasco Elementary School F FL #1,896/2,144 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area (builder): 2,435 sq ft; Building area total: 2,885 sq ftCDD applicable
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,700Total monthly fees: $96 (Total annual fees: $1,152)Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: KAI (monthly fee $96)HOA amenities include a poolAssociation approval requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residenceUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-09-20)Two levelsFaces west
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationNew constructionBuilder: D.R. Horton — Model: Robie IIBuilder license: CBC039052Permit number: 20251117Built on approximately 0.12 acres
• Exterior features: Paved road accessPark on siteCommunity pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanBlindsDouble-pane windowsHome warranty included
• Laundry & utility: Laundry roomWasherDryerIrrigation equipment

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $339,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $345,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $345,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $344,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $344,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $348,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-19 Listed $348,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid