448 40th St

New York, NY 11220

$1,650,000B

18 bd · 7.2 ba · 7,854 sqft · Built 1914 · MultiFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,760/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,653
• Tax + insurance: −$2,750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,940
• Net cashflow: $3,418/mo
• Annual: $41,011/yr
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.88%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $462,000

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 3-bed/1.2-bath units multifamily listed at $1.65M. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($41k/yr) — positive. Per door: $570/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.65M).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.55M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $104k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $93k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $462k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$167k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $18,760/mo this rent would consume 322% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 6563% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior paint — Yellow brick facade shows some discoloration
• Minor: concrete floors — Concrete floors show some wear
• Minor: interior paint — Painted walls show some wear