🏷️ Likely Rental
448 40th St · New York, NY
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $691 – $1,283
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 99°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 62.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 5 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 7 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.7/30.0
- DSCR +8.6/10.0
- Appreciation +7.8/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +6.8/10.0
- Rent growth +5.0/5.0
- Schools +4.9/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
$1,550,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. estimate disagrees with records
Listing remarks
Exceptional investment opportunity in the heart of Sunset Park! This well-maintained 6-family brick building (33x68, zoned R6B) features six spacious 3-bed/1-bath units with strong current income of $10,020/month ($120,240/yr) and a 5.1% cap rate at ask. Annual expenses of approximately $37,949 include taxes, insurance, gas, water, and common electric. Building highlights include brand-new 3rd floor windows and a roof approximately 7–8 years old — minimal near-term cap-ex. Conveniently located near the N/D/R trains, shopping, Sunset Park, the waterfront at Industry City and convenient express transit options into Manhattan.
Key facts
- Near shopping
- Near waterfront
- Brand new windows
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 6 × 3-bed/1.2-bath units multifamily listed at $1.55M. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($45k/yr) — positive. Per door: $622/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.55M).
- Recommended offer: $1.36M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
- Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Ms 51 William Alexander (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A+, #32 of 729 statewide, top 5%, 1,026 students, 61% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,048/mo per unit this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $98k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $87k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
- Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $434k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$157k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.36M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.18% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.18%
- Cash-on-cash
- 10.33%
- DSCR
- 1.46
- GRM
- 7.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $3,707,729
- List price
- $1,550,000
- Delta
- -55.50%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 8 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5624 5th Ave | 0.82mi | 18/6.0 | 7,700 (-2%) | 19mo | $2,500,000 | $325 | 41 |
| 543 49th St | 0.44mi | 16/8.0 (-2) | 6,348 (-19%) | 5mo | $1,480,000 | $233 | 37 |
| 1902 8th Ave | 1.16mi | 19/8.0 (+1) | 5,890 (-25%) | 10mo | $850,000 | $144 | 24 |
| 870-872 4 Ave | 0.44mi | 16/5.5 (-2) | 8,800 (+12%) | 52mo | $2,950,000 | $335 | 23 |
| 839 57th St | 1.00mi | 16/7.0 (-2) | 6,105 (-22%) | 15mo | $3,700,000 | $606 | 17 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
5.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 25.9%
- Equity multiple
- 2.73×
- Total profit
- $748,699
- Equity at exit
- $938,681
- IRR
- 26.8%
- Equity multiple
- 6.22×
- Total profit
- $2,265,931
- Equity at exit
- $1,672,251
Cash invested: $434,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State New York
- 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City New York
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 1 active
- Median asking
- $2,300,000 ($329/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 513 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- +43.7% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 11220
- Home prices YoY
- 2.5%
- Rents YoY
- 11.0%
- Active inventory
- 344
- Price-to-rent
- 42.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $18,286 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$8,128
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$1,938 /mo · $23,250/yr
- Insurance
- −$646
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$3,840
- Net cashflow
- $3,734
6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6× units | 3 | 1.2 | $18,288 |
| #1 | 3 | 1.2 | $3,048 |
| #2 | 3 | 1.2 | $3,048 |
| #3 | 3 | 1.2 | $3,048 |
| #4 | 3 | 1.2 | $3,048 |
| #5 | 3 | 1.2 | $3,048 |
| #6 | 3 | 1.2 | $3,048 |
| Total (6 units) | $18,286 | ||
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $4,805 | -5% $4,270 | +0% $3,734 | +5% $3,199 | +10% $2,663 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $2,290 | -5% $3,012 | +0% $3,734 | +5% $4,457 | +10% $5,179 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $4,515 | -0.5pp $4,128 | base $3,734 | +0.5pp $3,333 | +1.0pp $2,924 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $387,500
- Closing costs
- $46,500
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 9 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 253 51st St Brooklyn, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | $2,700 | — | 120d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 132 17th St Unit 5 Brooklyn, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $2,700 | $3.18 | 120d | 1 | 1.17mi |
| 87 Tehama St Brooklyn, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | — | $3,500 | — | 120d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 3322 12th Ave Brooklyn, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | $3,100 | — | 120d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 22 Tehama St Unit 2 Fl Brooklyn, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $2,980 | $4.26 | 120d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 22 Tehama St Unit 1 Brooklyn, NY | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2800 | $4,500 | $1.61 | 40d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 1351 38th St Brooklyn, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | $2,499 | — | 120d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 102 Dahill Rd Brooklyn, NY | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | $2,600 | — | 71d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 258 Senator St Unit 2fl Brooklyn, NY | 3.0 | 1.0 | — | $3,800 | — | 120d | 1 | 1.43mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Six-unit multi-family buildingTotal of 36 rooms across the building
- Financial info
- Financing considered: cash, bank mortgage, exchange
Exterior
- Parking
- No dedicated parking
- Utilities
- 110V electricGas hot waterGas heating fuelUtility expense listed
- Home design
- Attached buildingResidential propertyThree stories (units on floors 1–3)Zoning: R6B
- Construction
- Brick constructionAsphalt/tar and flat roofBlock foundationBuilding footprint approximately 68 x 33
- Exterior features
- Front and back yardFully fenced yard
Interior
- Kitchen
- Refrigerator includedOven/RangeAppliances included in units
- Bedrooms
- Six 3-bedroom units (two on each of three floors)
- Flooring
- Hardwood floorsLaminate floorsTile floors
- Bathrooms
- Seven full bathrooms (distributed across units)
- Heating & cooling
- Steam/radiator heatGas heating fuelWindow A/C units
- Interior features
- Window air conditioning units (5+)Window treatmentsOther interior features
- Laundry & utility
- Water included in unit features for most unitsHeat included in unit features for all units
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-22pricedays on market $1,550,000 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $1,650,000 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $1,650,000 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $1,650,000 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $1,650,000 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $1,650,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $1,650,000 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $1,650,000 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $1,650,000 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $1,650,000 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-09-06days on market $1,650,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $1,650,000 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $1,650,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $1,650,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $1,650,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $1,650,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $1,650,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $1,650,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $1,650,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $1,650,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $1,650,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $1,650,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $1,650,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $1,650,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $1,650,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $1,650,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $1,650,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $1,650,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $1,650,000 Active 118 DOM
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2026-08-09days on market $1,650,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $1,650,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $1,650,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $1,650,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $1,650,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $1,650,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $1,650,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $1,650,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $1,650,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $1,650,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $1,650,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $1,650,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $1,650,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $1,650,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $1,650,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $1,650,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $1,650,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $1,650,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $1,650,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $1,650,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $1,650,000 Active 88 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $219,432
- − Mortgage interest
- −$86,824
- − Property taxes
- −$23,250
- − Insurance
- −$7,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$17,555
- − Management
- −$17,555
- − Depreciation
- −$45,091
- Taxable income
- $21,408
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$5,138
- After-tax cash flow
- $39,673/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos
This 6-family brick building requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.
Repairs flagged
- Minor exterior paint — Yellow brick facade shows some discoloration
- Minor concrete floors — Concrete floors show some wear
- Minor interior paint — Painted walls show some wear
Value-add opportunities
- Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
- Both repair concrete floors — Improves living conditions and rental appeal ↑
- Both touch up interior paint — Enhances interior aesthetics and rental appeal ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
No district data.
Livability — New York
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #268
- US rank
- #4188
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- New York, NY
- County
- Kings County · 2,847,441 people
- City population
- 7,731,280
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- Population (ZIP)
- 90,652
- Household income
- $69,883
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 14% of renters
Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 2,847,441 people
- By 2030
- 2,937,006 · +3.1%
- By 2040
- 3,095,491 · +8.7%
- By 2050
- 3,228,968 · +13.4%
- By 2075
- 3,321,723 · +16.7%
- By 2100
- 3,111,387 · +9.3%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
- Race & ethnicity
- Asian 40% Hispanic / Latino 40% White 16% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Subsaharan African 1%
- Foreign-born
- 52% · China, Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 20% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 35% Arabic 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Kings
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 5.63%
- Current HPI
- 226.624
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 11.02%
- Metro
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.60%
- F500 in state
- 92
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Financial Services | 10 | $950B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 9 | $162B |
|
||
| Insurance | 4 | $225B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 2 | $144B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals | 2 | $112B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $69B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-04-14 Listed $1,650,000 BNYMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…