2636 Tinosa Cir

Bellview, FL 32526

$250,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $883/yr
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($883/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 548 students, 77% FRL); Bellview Middle School (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #558 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 421 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $250k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.