306 Dolly Horn Ln

Lake Murray of Richland, SC 29036-6006

$357,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,596 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 280 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,583/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,872
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-267/mo
• Annual: $-3,208/yr
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $99,960

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $357k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#102 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Murray Elementary (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #4 of 597 statewide, top 1%, 809 students, 18% FRL); Chapin Middle (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C+, #29 of 229 statewide, top 13%, 991 students, 27% FRL); Chapin High (math 82% / reading 91%, grade A, #7 of 196 statewide, top 4%, 1,615 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 27% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 05 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.