306 Dolly Horn Ln · Lake Murray of Richland, SC 29036-6006

$357,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 280 Days on market

Built 2020 0.28 ac lot $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained home in the highly desirable Hidden Cove—complete with shared access to Lake Murray and a day dock for convenient pick-up and drop-off! Nestled in a peaceful neighborhood known for its excellent schools, this home blends comfort, style, and practicality. Step through the inviting front porch into a light-filled foyer that flows seamlessly into the formal living and dining rooms. The heart of the home is the spacious open-concept kitchen and great room featuring a gas fireplace, stainless steel appliances, gas range, granite countertops, a large island with seating, walk-in pantry, built-in sound system, and a charming breakfast nook. Upstairs, yo

Key facts

• Excellent schools
• Open-concept kitchen
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• SHARED ACCESS TO LAKE MURRAY
• DAY DOCK
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD
• EXCELLENT SCHOOLS
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Property is part of an association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story single-family home
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Sprinkler system; Shared dock; Stone and vinyl exterior finish; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level with island, pantry, granite countertops, recessed lights, and luxury vinyl plank flooring
• Bedrooms: Master suite on second floor with cathedral ceilings, double vanity, his-and-hers closet, private bath with separate shower, walk-in closet, and carpeted floors; Three additional bedrooms on second floor with ceiling fans, private closets, shared baths, and carpeted floors
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank on main living areas (living room, formal living, formal dining, kitchen); Carpet in bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full baths; One half bath; Additional two full secondary baths (as listed)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central heating with gas on first and second levels
• Interior features: Gas log (natural) fireplace; Ceiling fans in living areas and bedrooms; Recessed lighting; Pantry; Island; Granite countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on second floor in a heated utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $357k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#102 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Murray Elementary (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #4 of 597 statewide, top 1%, 809 students, 18% FRL); Chapin High (math 82% / reading 91%, grade A, #7 of 196 statewide, top 4%, 1,615 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 27% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 83% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 05 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,344 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $25,922
• Equity at exit: $160,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $116,115
• Equity at exit: $247,385

Cash invested: $99,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29036-6006

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,872
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,052/yr
• Insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $309,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-166	+0% $-267	+5% $-368	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-471	-5% $-369	+0% $-267	+5% $-165	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-177	base $-267	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,250
• Closing costs: $10,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
628 Willowood Pkwy Chapin, SC	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,760	$1.38	4d	1	0.72mi
40 Rustyred Ct Chapin, SC	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,450	$1.02	12d	1	1.16mi
756 Helmsman Ln Chapin, SC	4.0	2.5	1948	$2,450	$1.26	15d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Active
2. 2026-02-05
   status Active
3. 2026-02-01
   historical
4. 2025-11-20
   price $357,000
5. 2025-09-25
   price $370,000
6. 2025-08-14
   price $385,000
7. 2025-07-28
   listed $395,000 Active
8. 2022-08-01
   soldstatus $390,000
9. 2022-06-24
   historical
10. 2022-06-04
    listed $390,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,052 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,052 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 52% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,052
• − Insurance: −$1,785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$10,385
• Taxable loss: −$9,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,298
• After-tax cash flow: $-910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 05
• NCES district ID: 4502820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,732
• Composite: 45.28/100
• National rank: #2656
• State rank: #5 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lake Murray of Richland

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #10903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Murray of Richland, SC

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-01 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $357,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $370,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $385,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $395,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2022-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-24 Delisted — Consolidated MLS
• 2022-06-04 Listed $390,000 Consolidated MLS

Property tax history

+16.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,052 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.