311 Miller St

Carl Junction, MO 64834

$158,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built 2004 · Other · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,556/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $280/mo
• Annual: $3,358/yr
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $44,240

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (1.5% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#169 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carl Junction R-I (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #57 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Carl Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.