311 Miller St · Carl Junction, MO 64834

$158,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Other · 32 Days on market

Built 2004 $87/sqft · 42% below area Est $270k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath modular home situated on over half an acre in the heart of Carl Junction! Built in 2004 and positioned on a desirable corner lot, this well-maintained home offers both comfort and functionality. Step inside to a warm and inviting living room featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace perfect for gathering on chilly evenings. The kitchen is designed with convenience in mind, offering an eat-at bar ideal for casual dining and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with an ensuite bathroom complete with double sinks, a large soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a patio overlooking the expansive, fenced backyard perfect for relaxing, pets, or hosting gatherings. For added peace of mind, the property also includes a storm shelter. Don't miss your opportunity to own this great property in a prime location schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Soaking tub
• Eat-at bar

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• EAT-AT BAR
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE SINKS
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.2% in Carl Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#169 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carl Junction R-I (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #57 of 324 in MO (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,260 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,162
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: -41.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,846
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $15,856
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64834

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1004 Southgate CIR Carl Junction, MO	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,595	$1.03	20d	1	0.64mi
702 Nicholas Ln Carl Junction, MO	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 965-char remark

   Show marketing remark (965 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath modular home situated on over half an acre in the heart of Carl Junction! Built in 2004 and positioned on a desirable corner lot, this well-maintained home offers both comfort and functionality. Step inside to a warm and inviting living room featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace perfect for gathering on chilly evenings. The kitchen is designed with convenience in mind, offering an eat-at bar ideal for casual dining and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with an ensuite bathroom complete with double sinks, a large soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a patio overlooking the expansive, fenced backyard perfect for relaxing, pets, or hosting gatherings. For added peace of mind, the property also includes a storm shelter. Don't miss your opportunity to own this great property in a prime location schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 965-char remark

   Show marketing remark (965 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath modular home situated on over half an acre in the heart of Carl Junction! Built in 2004 and positioned on a desirable corner lot, this well-maintained home offers both comfort and functionality. Step inside to a warm and inviting living room featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace perfect for gathering on chilly evenings. The kitchen is designed with convenience in mind, offering an eat-at bar ideal for casual dining and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with an ensuite bathroom complete with double sinks, a large soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a patio overlooking the expansive, fenced backyard perfect for relaxing, pets, or hosting gatherings. For added peace of mind, the property also includes a storm shelter. Don't miss your opportunity to own this great property in a prime location schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $158,000 Active 965-char remark

   Show marketing remark (965 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath modular home situated on over half an acre in the heart of Carl Junction! Built in 2004 and positioned on a desirable corner lot, this well-maintained home offers both comfort and functionality. Step inside to a warm and inviting living room featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace perfect for gathering on chilly evenings. The kitchen is designed with convenience in mind, offering an eat-at bar ideal for casual dining and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with an ensuite bathroom complete with double sinks, a large soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a patio overlooking the expansive, fenced backyard perfect for relaxing, pets, or hosting gatherings. For added peace of mind, the property also includes a storm shelter. Don't miss your opportunity to own this great property in a prime location schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $158,000 Active 965-char remark

   Show marketing remark (965 chars)

   Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath modular home situated on over half an acre in the heart of Carl Junction! Built in 2004 and positioned on a desirable corner lot, this well-maintained home offers both comfort and functionality. Step inside to a warm and inviting living room featuring a cozy wood-burning fireplace perfect for gathering on chilly evenings. The kitchen is designed with convenience in mind, offering an eat-at bar ideal for casual dining and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with an ensuite bathroom complete with double sinks, a large soaking tub, separate walk-in shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Enjoy outdoor living with a patio overlooking the expansive, fenced backyard perfect for relaxing, pets, or hosting gatherings. For added peace of mind, the property also includes a storm shelter. Don't miss your opportunity to own this great property in a prime location schedule your private showing today!

5. 2025-07-29
   soldstatus
6. 2025-07-25
   soldstatus Closed
7. 2025-07-25
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2025-06-19
   status Pending
9. 2025-06-19
   status Pending
10. 2025-05-28
    status Active
11. 2025-05-28
    status Active
12. 2025-05-15
    status Pending
13. 2025-05-15
    status Pending
14. 2025-05-05
    listed $149,900 Active
15. 2025-05-05
    listed $149,900 Active
16. 1997-10-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$871/yr (+$73/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $3,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carl Junction R-I
• NCES district ID: 2907350
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,866
• Composite: 41.04/100
• National rank: #3580
• State rank: #57 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carl Junction

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #9146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carl Junction, MO
• City population: 10,476
• Population (ZIP): 10,476

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.68%
• Current HPI: 255.1864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+5.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-18 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $158,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-16 Listed $158,000 OGAR
• 2025-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-25 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2025-07-25 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2025-06-19 Pending — OGAR
• 2025-06-19 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-05-28 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-05-28 Relisted — OGAR
• 2025-05-15 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-05-15 Pending — OGAR
• 2025-05-05 Listed $149,900 OGAR
• 2025-05-05 Listed $149,900 SOMO
• 1997-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · +22.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.