5447 WILLOW Dr

Croswell, MI 48422

$40,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 355 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$460
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $14/mo
• Annual: $169/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 2.38%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($169/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#549 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, employment D.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 48% of rent.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.