5447 WILLOW Dr · Croswell, MI 48422

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 355 Days on market

Built 1990 $460/mo HOA · 48% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FINANCING AVAILABLE. Freshly Remodeled 3 bed 2 full bath Double wide manufactured home. New flooring, fresh paint, new kitchen, remodeled bathrooms. Primary bedroom has its own bathroom and walk in closet. Truly a spacious home that doesn't break the bank. Just turn key ready waiting for its owner. Located Close to Downtown Lexington and Lake Huron.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New flooring
• Walk in closet

Tags

• FRESHLY REMODELED
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN LEXINGTON

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Frontage faces a road; Mailing city: Croswell (Buel Township area)
• HOA & community: Part of Country Hill Pines association; Monthly association fee of $460; Association contact available

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Natural gas heat fuel; Community well water; Shared septic system
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (manufactured after 1976); Residential, single-story (1 story); Built in 1990
• Construction: Crawlspace and piers foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding with vinyl trim; Paved street frontage; Paved driveway; Pets allowed (call for restrictions)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the entry level (approx. 13 x 14, 12 x 13, and 13 wide)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central A/C
• Interior features: Entry-level bedrooms; Living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($169/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($950 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#549 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, employment D.
• Croswell-Lexington Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #239 of 540 in MI (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 63 units permitted in Sanilac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sanilac County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 48% of rent.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.51%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,400
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 S Flower St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	7mo	$250,000	$165	73
33 S Flower St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,391 (-1%)	22mo	$190,000	$137	71
22 Church St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (+9%)	8mo	$208,292	$136	60
9 Pack St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-11%)	12mo	$195,000	$157	57
86 Gaige St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,428 (+2%)	8mo	$48,000	$34	52
140 N Howard Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+4%)	13mo	$195,000	$134	50
65 W Sanborn Ave	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-13%)	20mo	$93,900	$77	45
29 Pack St	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+14%)	16mo	$169,900	$106	43
39 N Flower St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-14%)	13mo	$205,000	$171	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-5,289
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-2,245
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48422

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $28	+0% $14	+5% $0	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-23	+0% $14	+5% $52	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $24	base $14	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 N Black River Rd Unit 12 Croswell, MI	3.0	1.5	932	$950	$1.02	6d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $40,000 Pending 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 353 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 352 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 347 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $40,000 Active 344 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $40,000 Active 343 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 341 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 340 DOM
13. 2026-04-09
    price $40,000
14. 2025-12-31
    status Active
15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-11-04
    price $45,000
17. 2025-06-25
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$912
• − Management: −$912
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable loss: −$148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$36
• After-tax cash flow: $204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Croswell-Lexington Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611140
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,784
• Composite: 32.49/100
• National rank: #5707
• State rank: #239 of 540 in MI

Livability — Croswell

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #17207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Croswell, MI
• Population (ZIP): 6,172

Population outlook (Sanilac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,948 people
• By 2030: 35,772 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 30,996 · -18.3%
• By 2050: 26,280 · -30.7%
• By 2075: 17,471 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 10,572 · -72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sanilac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.5% · R 73.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.65%
• Current HPI: 268.6695
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-31 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS