3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,641 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,678/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,068
Tax + insurance
−$865
HOA
−$622
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,192
Net cashflow
$-69/mo
Annual
$-828/yr
Cap rate
6.15%
Cash-on-cash
-0.51%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$163,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $585k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-828/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $573k (2.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $568k (2.9% below list).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($567k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $567k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#694 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A-, employment B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
Coachella Valley Unified (rural): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #481 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Westside Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,340 of 1,571 statewide, top 88%, 361 students, 91% FRL); Cahuilla Desert Academy Junior High (math 18% / reading 36%, grade F, #242 of 498 statewide, top 50%, 669 students, 79% FRL); Coachella Valley High (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 2,657 students, 88% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 660 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $499k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in La Quinta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $5,678/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($99k/yr) (locally 1078% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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