189 Sweet Magnolia Ln

Chester, TX 75936

$99,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $173/mo
• Annual: $2,080/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#939 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Chester ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #990 of 1,141 in TX (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.