189 Sweet Magnolia Ln · Chester, TX 75936

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1988 3.00 ac lot $86/sqft · 34% below area Est $151k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath pier and beam frame home situated on approximately 3.0 unrestricted acres. Tucked among mature woods on gently rolling terrain, the property offers privacy, natural beauty, and a peaceful setting complete with a small pond. The home is an investor's special and is ready for completion, making it ideal for those looking to customize or add value. A circle driveway provides convenient access and ample parking. With no restrictions, the possibilities are endless—whether you're envisioning a primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and transform this property into something truly special while enjoying the space and freedom that acreage living provides.

Key facts

• Mature woods
• Ample parking
• Small pond

Tags

• PIER AND BEAM FRAME HOME
• MATURE WOODS
• GENTLY ROLLING TERRAIN
• SMALL POND
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• AMPLE PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#939 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Chester ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #990 of 1,141 in TX (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,692
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -34.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $47,517
• Equity at exit: $70,603

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $129,764
• Equity at exit: $135,965

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75936

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,744/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $201	+0% $173	+5% $145	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $129	+0% $173	+5% $217	+10% $261
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $198	base $173	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $99,000 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath pier and beam frame home situated on approximately 3.0 unrestricted acres. Tucked among mature woods on gently rolling terrain, the property offers privacy, natural beauty, and a peaceful setting complete with a small pond. The home is an investor’s special and is ready for completion, making it ideal for those looking to customize or add value. A circle driveway provides convenient access and ample parking. With no restrictions, the possibilities are endless—whether you’re envisioning a primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and transform this property into something truly special while enjoying the space and freedom that acreage living provides.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $99,000 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath pier and beam frame home situated on approximately 3.0 unrestricted acres. Tucked among mature woods on gently rolling terrain, the property offers privacy, natural beauty, and a peaceful setting complete with a small pond. The home is an investor’s special and is ready for completion, making it ideal for those looking to customize or add value. A circle driveway provides convenient access and ample parking. With no restrictions, the possibilities are endless—whether you’re envisioning a primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and transform this property into something truly special while enjoying the space and freedom that acreage living provides.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $99,000

    Show marketing remark (757 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath pier and beam frame home situated on approximately 3.0 unrestricted acres. Tucked among mature woods on gently rolling terrain, the property offers privacy, natural beauty, and a peaceful setting complete with a small pond. The home is an investor’s special and is ready for completion, making it ideal for those looking to customize or add value. A circle driveway provides convenient access and ample parking. With no restrictions, the possibilities are endless—whether you’re envisioning a primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and transform this property into something truly special while enjoying the space and freedom that acreage living provides.

19. 2026-04-12
    listed $116,000 Active 757-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath pier and beam frame home situated on approximately 3.0 unrestricted acres. Tucked among mature woods on gently rolling terrain, the property offers privacy, natural beauty, and a peaceful setting complete with a small pond. The home is an investor's special and is ready for completion, making it ideal for those looking to customize or add value. A circle driveway provides convenient access and ample parking. With no restrictions, the possibilities are endless—whether you're envisioning a primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and transform this property into something truly special while enjoying the space and freedom that acreage living provides.

20. 2026-04-12
    listed $116,000 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath pier and beam frame home situated on approximately 3.0 unrestricted acres. Tucked among mature woods on gently rolling terrain, the property offers privacy, natural beauty, and a peaceful setting complete with a small pond. The home is an investor's special and is ready for completion, making it ideal for those looking to customize or add value. A circle driveway provides convenient access and ample parking. With no restrictions, the possibilities are endless—whether you're envisioning a primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and transform this property into something truly special while enjoying the space and freedom that acreage living provides.

21. 2026-04-12
    listed $116,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bedroom, 2 bath pier and beam frame home situated on approximately 3.0 unrestricted acres. Tucked among mature woods on gently rolling terrain, the property offers privacy, natural beauty, and a peaceful setting complete with a small pond. The home is an investor's special and is ready for completion, making it ideal for those looking to customize or add value. A circle driveway provides convenient access and ample parking. With no restrictions, the possibilities are endless—whether you're envisioning a primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. Bring your vision and transform this property into something truly special while enjoying the space and freedom that acreage living provides.

22. 2021-10-26
    soldstatus
23. 2019-03-30
    historical
24. 2019-02-11
    listed $24,000
25. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,744
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,068
• − Management: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$132
• After-tax cash flow: $1,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chester ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813770
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,919
• Composite: 29.1/100
• National rank: #11897
• State rank: #990 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Chester

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #939
• US rank: #16688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 677

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.31%
• Current HPI: 133.2272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+312.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $99,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $99,000 BBOR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $116,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-12 Listed $116,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $116,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2021-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-02-11 Listed $24,000 HARMLS
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,744 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.