44200 N Cattle Dr

Ash Fork, AZ 86320

$120,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 419 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,529/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $379/mo
• Annual: $4,543/yr
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.52%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#87 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) (rural): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #58 of 501 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ash Fork Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 119 students, 79% FRL); Ash Fork Middle School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C+, #21 of 218 statewide, top 9%, 74 students, 77% FRL); Ash Fork High School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 100 students, 75% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 65% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $160k (57%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $120k implies a 674% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.