44200 N Cattle Dr · Ash Fork, AZ 86320

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · Manufactured public records · 419 Days on market

Built 2002 51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

Key facts

• Splitable lot
• 50.56 acres
• 5 solar panels

Tags

• 50.56 ACRES
• 12X14 INSULATED BUILDING
• SPLITABLE LOT
• 5 SOLAR PANELS
• PERMITTED SEPTIC SYSTEM
• TWO 2500-GALLON WATER TANKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#87 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) (rural): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #58 of 501 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ash Fork Elementary School (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 119 students, 79% FRL); Ash Fork Middle School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C+, #21 of 218 statewide, top 9%, 74 students, 77% FRL); Ash Fork High School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D, #38 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 100 students, 75% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 65% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $160k (57%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $120k implies a 674% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.52%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $89,493
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $244,624
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86320

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $462	-5% $420	+0% $379	+5% $337	+10% $296
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $318	+0% $379	+5% $439	+10% $499
Rate	-1.0pp $439	-0.5pp $409	base $379	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $316

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

2. 2026-03-04
   status Pending 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

3. 2025-12-02
   price $120,000

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

4. 2025-12-02
   price $120,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

5. 2025-02-07
   price $215,000 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

6. 2025-01-08
   listed $280,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

7. 2025-01-08
   listed $280,000 Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   PRICE CORRECTION! 50.56 Acres of Endless Possibilities! Explore the perfect blend of natural beauty and opportunity on this exceptional property. Whether you dream of starting a homestead, creating a private retreat, or pursuing another venture, this land features open spaces and serene wooded areas with juniper trees. Highlights include a handicap-accessible permitted manufactured home, (in need of some repairs), a 12x14 insulated, permitted building, a storage shed, a non-permitted off-grid structure, and more. The splitable lot is ideal for expansion or investment.

8. 1991-01-22
   soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ash Fork Joint Unified District (4471)
• NCES district ID: 0400910
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $30,345
• Composite: 54.75/100
• National rank: #2833
• State rank: #58 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Ash Fork

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #13536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,482

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Current HPI: 306.148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+674.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $120,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-07 Price Changed $215,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-08 Listed $280,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-08 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 1991-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records