5538 Keith Ct #12

Keyes, CA 95382

$44,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $1,282/mo
• Annual: $15,387/yr
• Cap rate: 42.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.73%
• DSCR: 6.73
• 1% rule: 4.68%
• Cash to close: $12,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 42.3% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — dated and cluttered
• Minor: kitchen countertops — cluttered and dated