5538 Keith Ct #12 · Keyes, CA 95382

$44,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1976 Average condition Est $60k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 2-Bedroom, 1-Bath Mobile Home, located in a peaceful 55+ community on the outskirts of Turlock, CA with 720 SQ FT of cozy living space. This home is perfect for those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle, in an established neighborhood. The property is conveniently located near a major freeway for easy access and it is just minutes from shopping centers, restaurants and other amenities. Enjoy the tranquility of a quiet community while being close to everything you may need.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1976
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease listed ($700) but land lease flagged as No

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single-wide model; Concord make; Built in 1976
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Roof: other (unspecified)
• Exterior features: Backyard; Fenced yard; Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Synthetic countertops; 220-volt circuit in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Wall-mounted cooling units; Window air conditioning units; Heating: other (unspecified)
• Interior features: Dining and living area combined; Living room with undefined/other features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: other (unspecified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 42.3% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,226 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.73%
• DSCR: 6.73
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,760
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5538 Keith Ct	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	14mo	$40,000	$56	88
5526 Keith Ct	0.00mi	2/1.0	696 (-3%)	10mo	$57,500	$83	86
5548 Keith Ct #7	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	620 (-14%)	11mo	$43,000	$69	62
5061 Nunes Rd #39	0.59mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	11mo	$74,500	$93	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.75×
• Total profit: $72,287
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.70×
• Total profit: $159,658
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95382

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $1,282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $477

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 W Christoffersen Pkwy Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,217	$2.28	13d	15	1.19mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $44,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$1,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $15,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,756
• After-tax cash flow: $11,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home in a 55+ community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle with potential for cosmetic upgrades to boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — dated and cluttered
• Minor kitchen countertops — cluttered and dated

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and cluttered	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen countertops · cluttered and dated	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets — new cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 39,083
• Household income: $95,282
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -312.66%
• Current HPI: 279.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.96%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B