509 Grover St

Warrensburg, MO 64093

$184,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,484/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $67/mo
• Annual: $806/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $51,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $184k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($806/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#71 in MO, #4,801 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, commute F.
• Warrensburg R-VI (town): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #184 of 324 in MO (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maple Grove Elementary (440 students, 37% FRL); Warrensburg Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #211 of 391 statewide, top 55%, 722 students, 30% FRL); Warrensburg High (math 24% / reading 60%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 992 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 80 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.