509 Grover St · Warrensburg, MO 64093

$184,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Other public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1900 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming cottage needs some TLC, however, roof estimate approx. 5 years and HVAC 2024 receipt on file and carpet not old. Such an interesting facade with 2 covered porches with arches. The living has narrow hardwood floors and there are lovely glass French doors connecting Living to what could be a beautiful library (if shelving added floor to ceiling and would be ideal family room/library and there is a closet in this room so can be the 4th bedroom. This home offers so many possibilities to the creative mind for a makeover. It is located on a very old street in Warrensburg and is walkable to the university. The lot size is huge and goes back to the railroad, however, the owner said he let

Key facts

• Covered porches
• Glass french doors
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• COVERED PORCHES
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GLASS FRENCH DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 65 x 350 ft (assessor)
• Financial info: $767 annual tax amount
• HOA & community: No maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Bungalow floor plan; Faces south; One-story (main level living)
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Partial basement
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range / Free-standing electric oven; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level) — one with shower only, the other with shower over tub and ceramic tile
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Pantry; Stained cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($806/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Warrensburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#71 in MO, #4,801 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, commute F.
• Warrensburg R-VI (town): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #184 of 324 in MO (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maple Grove Elementary (440 students, 37% FRL); Warrensburg Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #211 of 391 statewide, top 55%, 722 students, 30% FRL); Warrensburg High (math 24% / reading 60%, grade F, #218 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 992 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 80 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,434 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.56%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-19,921
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $13,063
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64093

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $171	-5% $119	+0% $67	+5% $15	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $8	+0% $67	+5% $126	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $114	base $67	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
416 Grover St Warrensburg, MO	4.0	3.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	45d	1	0.13mi
309 Broad St Warrensburg, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,400	$1.36	45d	1	0.28mi
819 Broad St Warrensburg, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,100	$0.73	45d	1	0.48mi
801 Meadowbrook Warrensburg, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	826	$1,299	$1.57	45d	3	0.82mi
124 N Main St Unit A Warrensburg, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	45d	1	1.11mi
502 S Main St Warrensburg, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,970	$2.09	45d	18	1.13mi
511 N Main St Unit B Warrensburg, MO	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,200	$1.12	45d	1	1.15mi
1510 Coventry Ct Unit B Warrensburg, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	45d	1	1.21mi
1506 Coventry Ct Unit B Warrensburg, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	45d	1	1.21mi
1504 Coventry Dr Apt A Warrensburg, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	45d	1	1.23mi
1508 Coventry Dr Apt A Warrensburg, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	45d	1	1.23mi
1006 Foxridge Dr Warrensburg, MO	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	45d	1	1.28mi
1096 Pebblecreek Dr Apt A Warrensburg, MO	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,495	$1.30	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $184,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $194,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $194,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $194,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $194,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,785 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 132.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$2,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$572
• After-tax cash flow: $1,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrensburg R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2931020
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $43,760
• Composite: 31.77/100
• National rank: #5895
• State rank: #184 of 324 in MO

Livability — Warrensburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #4801

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrensburg, MO
• County: Johnson County · 34,718 people
• City population: 28,199
• Metro: Warrensburg, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,199
• Household income: $61,094
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,794 people
• By 2030: 56,861 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 58,239 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 59,168 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 62,222 · +11.5%
• By 2100: 60,118 · +7.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.22%
• Current HPI: 179.7251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.68%
• Metro: Warrensburg, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $194,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.