127 Spruce Run Dr

Saw Creek, PA 18328

$299,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$595
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-675/mo
• Annual: $-8,106/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-675 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (34.3% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $181k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $300k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.