127 Spruce Run Dr · Saw Creek, PA 18328

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1999 2.78 ac lot $159/sqft · 37% above area Est $442k · 32% under $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible opportunity for those looking to renovate and gain! This 4-bedroom home features a highly sought-after layout, including a full basement, 2-car garage, and nearly 3 acres of beautiful land. The property requires TLC and is being sold ''as is, '' with the price reflecting its current condition. Perfect for a flip or a custom renovation project. Don't miss out on the best value per square foot in the area.

Key facts

• 2.78 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-675 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (39.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $300k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,572 (39.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,521
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -32.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $120,439
• Equity at exit: $270,174

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $388,760
• Equity at exit: $582,640

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$470 /mo · $5,635/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,826

Max offer price $180,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-506	-5% $-591	+0% $-675	+5% $-760	+10% $-845
Rent	-10% $-831	-5% $-753	+0% $-675	+5% $-598	+10% $-520
Rate	-1.0pp $-524	-0.5pp $-599	base $-675	+0.5pp $-753	+1.0pp $-832

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Active 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Incredible opportunity for those looking to renovate and gain! This 4-bedroom home features a highly sought-after layout, including a full basement, 2-car garage, and nearly 3 acres of beautiful land. The property requires TLC and is being sold ''as is, '' with the price reflecting its current condition. Perfect for a flip or a custom renovation project. Don't miss out on the best value per square foot in the area.

2. 2026-01-12
   listed $299,900 Active 418-char remark

   Show marketing remark (418 chars)

   Incredible opportunity for those looking to renovate and gain! This 4-bedroom home features a highly sought-after layout, including a full basement, 2-car garage, and nearly 3 acres of beautiful land. The property requires TLC and is being sold ''as is, '' with the price reflecting its current condition. Perfect for a flip or a custom renovation project. Don't miss out on the best value per square foot in the area.

3. 2016-06-24
   soldstatus $150,000
4. 2006-08-21
   soldstatus $212,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,635 · $470/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,635 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,635
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$13,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,258
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+41.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-01-12 Listed $299,900 PMAR
• 2016-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,635 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.