12518 Dearborn Dr #12518

Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$134,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,029 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$470
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-757/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $37,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $134k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-757/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 803 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?