Aspen 3 Exterior Plan

Flemington, GA 31313

$239,490D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,696 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,190/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax + insurance: −$834
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-386/mo
• Annual: $-4,630/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $68,457

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (8.5% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#150 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Flemington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.