Aspen 3 Exterior Plan · Flemington, GA 31313

$239,490

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,696 sqft · Townhouse · 149 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aspen 3 Exterior builds on the charm of our original Aspen with expanded living space and added flexibility-featuring 1,696 sq. ft. , an attached one-car garage, and a thoughtfully designed three-story layout with 4 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and 1 half bathroom! As an exterior home, this floor plan includes a private fourth bedroom with a full bath on the first floor-perfect for guests, a home office, or creating a more private living space. The second floor offers a bright, open-concept design. The great room spans the back of the home, filled with natural light and ideal for everyday living or entertaining.

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Kitchen island
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• PRIVATE FOURTH BEDROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE BACKYARD PATIO
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $239,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-386 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Flemington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#150 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,661 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,490
• List price: $239,490
• Delta: -2.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
79 Simms Way	0.07mi	4/3.5	1,696 (0%)	1mo	$244,490	$144	96
71 Simms Way	0.06mi	4/3.5	1,696 (0%)	2mo	$253,000	$149	96
15 Simms Way	0.01mi	4/3.5	1,696 (0%)	6mo	$252,990	$149	94
35 Simms Way	0.03mi	4/3.5	1,696 (0%)	6mo	$251,000	$148	93
27 Simms Way	0.02mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (0%)	1mo	$229,490	$135	91
31 Simms Way	0.02mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (0%)	1mo	$229,490	$135	91
117 Simms Way	0.08mi	4/3.5	1,696 (0%)	8mo	$246,990	$146	89
133 Simms Way	0.10mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (0%)	3mo	$244,490	$144	86
126 Simms Way	0.11mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (0%)	3mo	$244,605	$144	85
122 Simms Way	0.11mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (0%)	4mo	$242,490	$143	84
121 Simms Way	0.09mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (0%)	7mo	$242,490	$143	83
134 Simms Way	0.11mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,696 (0%)	7mo	$239,290	$141	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-58,457
• Equity at exit: $36,454

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-57,898
• Equity at exit: $21,139

Cash invested: $68,457 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $239,490 ($141/sqft)
• Median days on market: 40 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,667/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,679

Max offer price $188,661

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-217	-5% $-301	+0% $-386	+5% $-470	+10% $-555
Rent	-10% $-559	-5% $-472	+0% $-386	+5% $-299	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-263	-0.5pp $-324	base $-386	+0.5pp $-449	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,122
• Closing costs: $7,335
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 Cassels Ct Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2101	$2,150	$1.02	25d	1	0.08mi
26 Cassels Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1781	$2,195	$1.23	31d	1	0.08mi
145 Factors Walk Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1810	$2,300	$1.27	10d	1	0.29mi
219 Herty Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,350	$1.43	10d	1	0.36mi
26 Perlieu Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,995	$1.41	10d	1	0.89mi
76 Abode Ave Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1635	$2,195	$1.34	10d	1	0.91mi
158 Hamlet Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1458	$1,900	$1.30	51d	1	0.96mi
92 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1463	$2,300	$1.57	10d	1	0.96mi
130 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1518	$2,100	$1.38	184d	1	0.98mi
140 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,900	$1.40	10d	1	0.98mi
89 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1482	$2,000	$1.35	10d	1	0.99mi
25 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1392	$1,995	$1.43	51d	1	1.04mi
11 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,895	$1.60	21d	1	1.05mi
100 Centennial Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1703	$2,150	$1.26	184d	1	1.05mi
78 Centennial Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,100	$1.44	1d	1	1.06mi
78 Centennial Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,100	$1.44	184d	1	1.06mi
83 Heirloom Rd Unit 1 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1411	$2,000	$1.42	0d	1	1.13mi
83 Heirloom Rd Unit 1 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1411	$2,000	$1.42	21d	1	1.13mi
335 Abode Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,950	$1.40	24d	1	1.14mi
96 Beaumont Dr Unit 1 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,975	$1.41	184d	1	1.14mi
380 Tremain Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	2075	$2,300	$1.11	10d	1	1.22mi
10 Beaumont Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1390	$1,900	$1.37	40d	1	1.22mi
433 Abode Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,190	$1.09	10d	1	1.23mi
193 Heirloom Rd Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	184d	1	1.24mi
767 Abode Ave Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,150	$1.51	51d	1	1.27mi
720 Thornwood Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,450	$1.07	24d	1	1.32mi
624 Palmetto Trce Unit 624 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1195	$1,500	$1.26	1d	1	1.41mi
601 Tupelo Trl Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	12d	1	1.44mi
601 Tupelo Trl Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,350	$0.90	51d	1	1.44mi
601 Tupelo Trl Unit 16D Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1504	$1,450	$0.96	10d	1	1.48mi
601 Tupelo Trl Unit 16D Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1504	$1,450	$0.96	14d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (modified Jun 12, 2026)
• Financial info: List price $262,490

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan homeAddress: Hinesville, GA (159 Simms Way / Aspen 3 Exterior Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1696

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Aspen 3 Exterior)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $239,490 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $239,490 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $239,490 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $239,490 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $239,490 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $239,490 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $239,490 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $239,490 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   pricedays on market $239,490 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $249,490 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $249,490 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $249,490 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $249,490 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $249,490 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $249,490 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $249,490 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $249,490 Active 132 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $249,490 Active 131 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $249,490 Active 130 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $249,490 Active 129 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $249,490 Active 128 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $249,490 Active 127 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $249,490 Active 126 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $249,490 Active 125 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $249,490 Active 124 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $249,490 Active 123 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $249,490 Active 122 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $249,490 Active 121 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $249,490 Active 120 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $249,490 Active 119 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $249,490 Active 118 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $249,490 Active 117 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $249,490 Active 116 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $249,490 Active 115 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,490 Active 114 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $249,490 Active 113 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $249,490 Active 112 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $249,490 Active 111 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    price $249,490 Active 110 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $259,490 Active 110 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $259,490 Active 109 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $259,490 Active 108 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $259,490 Active 107 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $259,490 Active 106 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $259,490 Active 105 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $259,490 Active 104 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $259,490 Active 103 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $259,490 Active 102 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $259,490 Active 101 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $259,490 Active 100 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,695
• − Property taxes: −$3,667
• − Insurance: −$6,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$7,112
• Taxable loss: −$8,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in common areas — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joseph Martin Elementary School F GA #784/1,228 Nat'l #31,434/41,679 Middle Midway Middle School F GA #260/470 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Liberty County High School F GA #131/424 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Flemington

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #9758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flemington, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,689 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (modified Jun 12, 2026)
• Financial info: List price $262,490

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan homeAddress: Hinesville, GA (159 Simms Way / Aspen 3 Exterior Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1696

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Aspen 3 Exterior)