Cambria Plan

Kyle, TX 78640

$246,499F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,715
• Tax + insurance: −$545
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-628/mo
• Annual: $-7,536/yr
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.23%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $91,588

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-628 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2701 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.