Cambria Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$255,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story home is perfect for families who need space. The main living area showcases an open layout shared by the kitchen, dining room, family room and patio. The owner's suite enjoys a private bathroom and walk-in closet in the back of the home for added privacy. While two secondary bedrooms are situated toward the entry adjacent to a shared bathroom in the hall.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $255,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-625 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laura B Negley El (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 1,007 students, 29% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2406 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,765 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,000
• List price: $255,999
• Delta: -22.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
285 Keefer	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	2mo	$277,990	$192	90
144 Parsons	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	1mo	$238,999	$165	88
168 Parsons	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	1mo	$241,999	$167	86
173 Bugbee	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-2%)	5mo	$244,990	$172	83
155 Parsons	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-3%)	2mo	$314,999	$223	81
108 Parsons	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-2%)	5mo	$248,990	$174	81
136 Parsons	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-2%)	4mo	$239,999	$168	81
110 Madrid	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-12%)	2mo	$269,900	$212	64
149 Bugbee	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+10%)	5mo	$261,990	$164	63
130 Parsons	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$259,999	$162	62
160 Parsons	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$259,999	$162	61
254 Parsons	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,602 (+10%)	2mo	$260,999	$163	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-99,039
• Equity at exit: $48,906

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-160,935
• Equity at exit: $28,359

Cash invested: $91,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.4 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $296,999 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 28% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2406
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,869

Max offer price $237,505

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-399	-5% $-512	+0% $-625	+5% $-739	+10% $-852
Rent	-10% $-790	-5% $-707	+0% $-625	+5% $-543	+10% $-461
Rate	-1.0pp $-460	-0.5pp $-542	base $-625	+0.5pp $-710	+1.0pp $-797

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,000
• Closing costs: $9,840
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Jeffers Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,095	$1.29	119d	1	0.13mi
397 Keefer Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	97d	1	0.15mi
500 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	113d	1	0.25mi
381 Jack Ryan Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,150	$1.34	9d	1	0.30mi
167 Rioja Unit (Main House) Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1569	$1,850	$1.18	3d	1	0.32mi
167 Rioja Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1569	$2,300	$1.47	139d	1	0.32mi
1405 Marley Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,299	$1.30	88d	1	0.35mi
1405 Marley Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,197	$1.24	62d	1	0.35mi
1564 Marley Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,200	$1.37	42d	1	0.37mi
220 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,150	$1.21	78d	1	0.37mi
460 Buenos Aires Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,200	$1.37	76d	1	0.38mi
250 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,899	$1.49	108d	1	0.39mi
190 Tofalla Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	119d	1	0.41mi
321 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,600	$2.04	113d	1	0.43mi
171 Mendoza Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$2,195	$1.37	6d	1	0.45mi
252 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,800	$1.26	62d	1	0.46mi
228 Patagonia Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,900	$1.54	67d	1	0.48mi
388 Barcelona Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,200	$1.24	74d	1	0.48mi
341 Madrid Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1611	$1,900	$1.18	9d	1	0.50mi
3875 Burnham Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,793	$2.92	42d	42	0.53mi
541 Barcelona Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,950	$1.53	100d	1	0.57mi
107B Pinnacle Ln Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,376	$1.55	6d	1	0.59mi
107B Pinnacle Ln Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,377	$1.56	9d	1	0.59mi
135 Pinnacle Ln Unit A Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,895	$1.24	42d	1	0.62mi
1181 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,825	$1.37	74d	1	0.65mi
201 Edwin Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$1,800	$1.35	67d	1	0.66mi
1054 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	67d	1	0.71mi
1054 Dorn Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	74d	1	0.71mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	139d	1	0.73mi
510 Kohlers Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$1,731	$1.77	3d	21	0.73mi
4300 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,690	$2.97	3d	31	0.93mi
1075 Vaughn Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$2,314	$3.02	28d	10	1.00mi
1007 Harwell Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1819	$2,750	$1.51	67d	1	1.05mi
162 Rains Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$2,200	$1.44	6d	1	1.10mi
1612 Sanders Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,800	$1.58	6d	1	1.11mi
4624 Cromwell Dr Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,750	$1.89	3d	5	1.16mi
5711 FM 2770 Kyle, TX	3.0	3.0	1432	$2,010	$1.40	9d	2	1.22mi
1050 Wittenburg Kyle, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$1,605	$1.82	3d	13	1.22mi
155 Sycamore Pines Ln Mountain City, TX	3.0	2.5	1683	$2,150	$1.28	24d	1	1.30mi
155 Sycamore Pines Ln Mountain City, TX	3.0	2.5	1683	$2,150	$1.28	28d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $255,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $255,999 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $255,999 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $255,999 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $255,999 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $255,999 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $255,999 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $255,999 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $255,999 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $255,999 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    price $255,999 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $254,999 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $254,999 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $254,999 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $254,999 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $254,999 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $254,999 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $254,999 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $254,999 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $254,999 Active 193 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $254,999 Active 192 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $254,999 Active 190 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $254,999 Active 189 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $254,999 Active 188 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $254,999 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $254,999 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $254,999 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $254,999 Active 184 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $254,999 Active 183 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $254,999 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $254,999 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $254,999 Active 180 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $254,999 Active 179 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $254,999 Active 178 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $254,999 Active 176 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $254,999 Active 175 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $254,999 Active 174 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $254,999 Active 173 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $254,999 Active 171 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $254,999 Active 170 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $254,999 Active 169 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $254,999 Active 168 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $254,999 Active 165 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $254,999 Active 163 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $254,999 Active 162 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $254,999 Active 160 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $254,999 Active 158 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $254,999 Active 157 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $254,999 Active 156 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,373
• − Property taxes: −$4,920
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$9,542
• Taxable loss: −$13,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,250–$21,750 screening

This single-story home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Laura B Negley El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle R C Barton Middle B- TX #270/1,662 Nat'l #2,699/14,009 High Jack C Hays H S F TX #697/1,632 Nat'l #7,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $255,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $255,990 Zillow