19 Academy St

Patchogue, NY 11772

$625,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax + insurance: −$1,570
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,228
• Net cashflow: $-227/mo
• Annual: $-2,725/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $175,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $625k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-114/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $585k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $585k (6.4% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($606k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $585k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in NY, #1,800 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: River Elementary School (math 75%, 300 students, 47% FRL); South Ocean Middle School (math 75%, 599 students, 57% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $425k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,849/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 1595% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?