1165 Jay Bird Springs Rd

Chauncey, GA 31011

$120,000C-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,753 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $55/mo
• Annual: $655/yr
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($655/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#328 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Dodge County (rural): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #139 of 174 in GA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Dodge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dodge County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Outdated and in poor condition
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in poor condition
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt