1165 Jay Bird Springs Rd · Chauncey, GA 31011

$120,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,753 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

Built 1963 Fair condition 1.00 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With some loving upgraded touches this home has a lot of possibilities. The main home has 2 bedrooms, 2 large bathrooms, a keeping room/laundry, and massive kitchen overlooking the living room. There is an additional in-law suite(left of the home) that has 1 large room, a large walk-in closet, 2 showers, and 2 toilet rooms. This side could easily be converted to another bedroom/living space. This is a one-of-a-kind structure! Located on 1 acre of land outside of Chauncey,GA. Just minutes from Chauncey,Eastman, & McRae-Helena. Give the listing agents a call today for more information and to schedule a showing! **Beware of Scammers

Key facts

• In-law suite
• Keeping room laundry
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• IN-LAW SUITE
• MASSIVE KITCHEN
• KEEPING ROOM LAUNDRY
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• 1 ACRE OF LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($655/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#328 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Dodge County (rural): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #139 of 174 in GA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Dodge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Dodge County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.32%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $35,658
• Equity at exit: $72,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $103,003
• Equity at exit: $129,677

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31011

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    price $120,000 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    With some loving upgraded touches this home has a lot of possibilities. The main home has 2 bedrooms, 2 large bathrooms, a keeping room/laundry, and massive kitchen overlooking the living room. There is an additional in-law suite(left of the home) that has 1 large room, a large walk-in closet, 2 showers, and 2 toilet rooms. This side could easily be converted to another bedroom/living space. This is a one-of-a-kind structure! Located on 1 acre of land outside of Chauncey,GA. Just minutes from Chauncey,Eastman, & McRae-Helena. Give the listing agents a call today for more information and to schedule a showing! **Beware of Scammers

17. 2025-08-16
    historical
18. 2025-07-30
    price $109,900
19. 2025-05-16
    listed $125,000 New 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    With some loving upgraded touches this home has a lot of possibilities. The main home has 2 bedrooms, 2 large bathrooms, a keeping room/laundry, and massive kitchen overlooking the living room. There is an additional in-law suite(left of the home) that has 1 large room, a large walk-in closet, 2 showers, and 2 toilet rooms. This side could easily be converted to another bedroom/living space. This is a one-of-a-kind structure! Located on 1 acre of land outside of Chauncey,GA. Just minutes from Chauncey,Eastman, & McRae-Helena. Give the listing agents a call today for more information and to schedule a showing! **Beware of Scammers

20. 2025-05-16
    listed $125,000 New

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    With some loving upgraded touches this home has a lot of possibilities. The main home has 2 bedrooms, 2 large bathrooms, a keeping room/laundry, and massive kitchen overlooking the living room. There is an additional in-law suite(left of the home) that has 1 large room, a large walk-in closet, 2 showers, and 2 toilet rooms. This side could easily be converted to another bedroom/living space. This is a one-of-a-kind structure! Located on 1 acre of land outside of Chauncey,GA. Just minutes from Chauncey,Eastman, & McRae-Helena. Give the listing agents a call today for more information and to schedule a showing! **Beware of Scammers

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$308
• After-tax cash flow: $963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen and bathrooms, exterior siding, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Outdated and in poor condition
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in poor condition
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures increase functionality and appeal
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Outdated and in poor condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$48,000–165,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures increase functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dodge County
• NCES district ID: 1301770
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,856
• Composite: 18.1/100
• National rank: #8971
• State rank: #139 of 174 in GA

Livability — Chauncey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #17319

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 693

Population outlook (Dodge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,669 people
• By 2030: 18,784 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 16,878 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 14,837 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 9,804 · -50.2%
• By 2100: 5,885 · -70.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Dodge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.9) · D 24.9% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.9pp · 2024: -49.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.9 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+45.5 2012: R+35.9 2008: R+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 98.3575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $120,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-16 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $109,900 GAMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listed $125,000 GAMLS