9 Oakwood Cir

Flower Hill, NY 11576

$1,445,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,983 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,578
• Tax + insurance: −$2,187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $-5,025/mo
• Annual: $-60,300/yr
• Cap rate: 2.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.90%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $404,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-60k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $557k (61.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $600k (58.5% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $557k (61.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $118k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $108k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Roslyn Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #28 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harbor Hill School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #133 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 584 students, 10% FRL); Roslyn Middle School (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Roslyn High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,035 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$189k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.