9 Oakwood Cir · Flower Hill, NY 11576

$1,445,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,983 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1965 0.30 ac lot $729/sqft · 27% above area Est $1840k · 21% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Schools +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +2.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Roslyn, Flower Hill 5 Bedroom, 3 Bath Sprawling Ranch on picturesque cul-de-sac 1/3 acre. Featuring an Eat-in Kitchen with Stainless Steel Appliances, entertainment Den with fireplace, primary suite with private bath, Enjoy outdoor living on wrap around deck, sticker to Port Washington train station, Americana Shopping and Christopher Morley Park.

Key facts

• Entertainment den
• Americana shopping
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENTERTAINMENT DEN
• FIREPLACE
• AMERICANA SHOPPING
• CHRISTOPHER MORLEY PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service provided by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Bi-level design
• Construction: Brick and shingle siding construction
• Exterior features: Brick and shingle siding exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-60k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $557k (61.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $600k (58.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $557k (61.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Roslyn Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #28 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harbor Hill School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #133 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 584 students, 10% FRL); Roslyn Middle School (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Roslyn High School (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,035 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $118k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $108k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$189k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $557,311 (61.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.90%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 20.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,840,391
• List price: $1,445,000
• Delta: -21.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Wood Valley Ln	0.43mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,008 (+1%)	24mo	$1,800,000	$896	51
32 Church St	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,818 (-8%)	16mo	$990,000	$545	37
45 Knollwood Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,174 (+10%)	17mo	$1,750,000	$805	36
130 Main St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-7%)	16mo	$665,000	$359	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $227,849
• Equity at exit: $1,047,467

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $898,617
• Equity at exit: $2,032,954

Cash invested: $404,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11576

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 20.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,578
• Tax from tax record: −$1,585 /mo · $19,022/yr
• Insurance: −$602
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,260
• Net cashflow: $-5,025

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,361

Max offer price $557,311

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,207	-5% $-4,616	+0% $-5,025	+5% $-5,434	+10% $-5,843
Rent	-10% $-5,499	-5% $-5,262	+0% $-5,025	+5% $-4,788	+10% $-4,551
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,297	-0.5pp $-4,657	base $-5,025	+0.5pp $-5,399	+1.0pp $-5,780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $361,250
• Closing costs: $43,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1433 Old Northern Blvd Roslyn, NY	6.0	2.0	2400	$6,000	$2.50	0d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $1,445,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,495,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,495,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,495,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,495,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,495,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 350-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,495,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,495,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,495,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,495,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,495,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,495,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,495,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,495,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,495,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $1,575,000 349-char remark
18. 2026-04-20
    listed $1,595,000 Active 349-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $19,022 · $1,585/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,721 · $1,810/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,699/yr (+$225/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$80,942
• − Property taxes: −$19,022
• − Insurance: −$7,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,760
• − Management: −$5,760
• − Depreciation: −$42,036
• Taxable loss: −$88,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-39,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roslyn Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625050
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $128,640
• Composite: 77.26/100
• National rank: #101
• State rank: #28 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flower Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3270

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,796

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Korean 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.48%
• Current HPI: 305.952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $1,445,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $1,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $1,575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $19,022 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.