3940 Wilderness Dr

Prosper, TX 75078

$859,000C-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,277 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,658/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,505
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$83
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,398
• Net cashflow: $89/mo
• Annual: $1,069/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $240,520

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $859k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $666k (22.5% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($846k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $666k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#341 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prosper ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #33 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cynthia A Cockrell El (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 759 students, 4% FRL); Lorene Rogers Middle (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A, #69 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,430 students, 0% FRL); Prosper H S (math 60% / reading 75%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,769 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 1348 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.0% in Prosper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($197k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.