3940 Wilderness Dr · Prosper, TX 75078

$859,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,277 sqft · Other public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 0.33 ac lot $201/sqft · 24% below area Est $1137k · 24% under $83/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW IN MALABAR HILL !! HUGE NORTH FACING CORNER LOT, REAR ENTRY GARAGE 5-4-3 CAR GARAGE ON HUGE 95'X150' HOMESITE. .LUXURIOUS FINISH OUT INCLUDING UPGRADED LIGHT AND PLUMBING FIXTURES, FLOOR TO CEILING CABINETS IN KITCHEN WITH LIGHTED GLASS DOOR UPPERS, QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS, STUNNING 60 INCH DECORATIVE FIREPLACE, LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING, UPGRADED SCULPTED CARPETING, WET BAR IN MEDIA ROOM, CEILING FANS IN EVERY BEDROOM, AND MUCH, MUCH MORE! A ABSOLUTE MUST-SEE IN PROSPER. READY NOW!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Decorative fireplace
• Rear entry garage

Tags

• NORTH FACING CORNER LOT
• REAR ENTRY GARAGE
• FLOOR TO CEILING CABINETS
• LIGHTED GLASS DOOR UPPERS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DECORATIVE FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual HOA fee of $1,000 covering grounds maintenance and management; HOA managed by NEW ROC

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage with garage door opener and garage facing rear; 3 covered parking spaces
• Security: Burglar alarm; Security system (owned); Prewired for security; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water and city sewer; Individual gas and water meters; Underground utilities; Concrete curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; New construction (completed 2025); Facing north
• Construction: Slab foundation; New construction completed in 2025; Smart home features
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 95' x 150'

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Electric oven; Double oven; Convection oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor with walk-in closet (20 x 16); Guest suite on first floor with walk-in closet (13 x 13); Four additional bedrooms (three upstairs with walk-in closets: 15 x 13, 14 x 12, 13 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Zoned HVAC; Fireplace(s) for heating; Ceiling fans; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: Cathedral and vaulted ceilings; Chandeliers and decorative lighting; Flat screen wiring and sound system wiring; Open floorplan with kitchen island; Loft; Smart home system; Attic fan; Plumbed for gas; Vented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $859k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $666k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $666k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.0% in Prosper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#341 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Prosper ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #33 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cynthia A Cockrell El (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 759 students, 4% FRL); Lorene Rogers Middle (math 70% / reading 68%, grade A, #69 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,430 students, 0% FRL); Prosper H S (math 60% / reading 75%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,769 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 1348 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($197k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($846k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $665,812 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,137,172
• List price: $859,000
• Delta: -24.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-153,401
• Equity at exit: $128,080

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-203,180
• Equity at exit: $74,271

Cash invested: $240,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75078

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 1348
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,658 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,505
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,702/yr
• Insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,398
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,545

Max offer price $859,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $575	-5% $332	+0% $89	+5% $-154	+10% $-397
Rent	-10% $-437	-5% $-174	+0% $89	+5% $352	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $522	-0.5pp $308	base $89	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $214,750
• Closing costs: $25,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4001 Arches Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	4.5	4580	$9,800	$2.14	45d	1	0.35mi
580 Butchart Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	4.5	4091	$5,900	$1.44	0d	1	0.64mi
3190 Genevieve Ln Prosper, TX	5.0	4.0	3969	$5,999	$1.51	25d	1	0.78mi
2368 County Road 852 Unit 1055509P McKinney, TX	5.0	3.0	3153	$17,881	$5.67	23d	1	1.13mi
2368 County Road 852 Unit 852 McKinney, TX	5.0	3.0	3160	$12,900	$4.08	23d	1	1.14mi
820 Manchester Ave Prosper, TX	4.0	3.5	3091	$4,500	$1.46	20d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $859,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $859,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $859,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $859,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $859,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $859,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $859,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $859,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $859,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $859,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-03-04
    price $859,000 493-char remark
12. 2026-02-24
    listed $869,000 Active 493-char remark
13. 2026-01-31
    historical
14. 2026-01-10
    price $869,000
15. 2026-01-02
    listed $879,000 Active
16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-12-05
    listed $899,000 Active
18. 2025-11-30
    historical
19. 2025-11-20
    price $899,000
20. 2025-11-01
    price $849,000
21. 2025-10-20
    price $829,000
22. 2025-09-17
    price $839,000
23. 2025-09-13
    price $849,000
24. 2025-08-27
    price $859,000
25. 2025-08-17
    price $889,000
26. 2025-08-06
    price $899,000
27. 2025-08-04
    price $909,000
28. 2025-07-10
    price $919,000
29. 2025-07-01
    listed $929,000 Active
30. 2025-06-30
    historical
31. 2025-06-22
    price $929,000
32. 2025-04-26
    price $949,000
33. 2025-03-15
    listed $929,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,702 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,720 · $1,310/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,017/yr (+$1,085/mo · 481.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,702
• − Insurance: −$4,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,392
• − Management: −$6,392
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$24,989
• Taxable loss: −$13,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,357
• After-tax cash flow: $4,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has a large corner lot with a rear entry garage. Consider landscaping and smart home features to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prosper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836000
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $107,993
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1212
• State rank: #33 of 826 in TX

Livability — Prosper

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #7401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prosper, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 53,011
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,011
• Household income: $196,564
• Rent vs Own: 10.4% rent · 89.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 581.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 14% Asian 14% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.33%
• Current HPI: 286.9426
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.29%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $859,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $859,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $869,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $869,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $879,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $899,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $899,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $849,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $829,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $839,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $849,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $859,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $889,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $899,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $909,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $919,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $929,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $929,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $949,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-15 Listed $929,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,702 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.